FITNESS

As with athletes, a horse needs to be in peak condition to perform to its full potential. A trainer brings his / her horse to peak condition using a combination of training, trials and actual racing, with the characteristics of the individual horse dictating the preparation adopted. After holding it's peak condition for a number of runs, a horse will begin to tire both physically and mentally from the rigours of racing and may need to be sent for a break or spell. Some horses can handle long preparations with many starts, while others can only peak for a few runs before they begin to taper off. . It depends on confirmation, constitution and overall wellness.

Fitness should be considered an important element in your assessment of each horse and the following guidelines will help keep you on the right path. 

Top 10 Fitness Guidelines

GENERAL

1. Contrary to some schools of thought, there is no such thing as a "key fitness pattern" that you can apply across the board to reliably isolate winning chances, ruling out others.

2. When assessing a horse's form you can typically classify it into one of the following fitness groups:

3. Horses are individual animals and it's often worthwhile paying attention to previous preparations. Most trainers tailor their actions to the horse and will repeat patterns that have previously proven successful. How many runs from a spell has it taken the horse to fire in the past? How many runs does it usually have in a preparation? How are its races usually spaced? How does it typically perform off a quick back up? or when given a short break of 28 days or more? 

4. The impact the horse's likely fitness has on its chance today should be assessed in the context of the class of race. Class horses racing below their true level of ability can sometimes win when short of peak fitness. However, if the horse is racing in its right class then the competition is so tough that it will need to be at its absolute peak to win.

FIRST UP HORSES

5. First up statistics can be misleading. Always check the class, conditions and beaten margin of a horse before making a judgement about its chance in this race. 

6. if there are no strong clues from the history of the horse itself, look at the record of the trainer.  Some trainers are known to get their horses to fire first up, while others prefer to make a steadier start to the preparation and build to peak fitness through racing.

7. The jockey booking can often provide a clue. The appointment of a high profile or regular winning jockey can be a sign that the stable believes the horse is fit enough to win. However if a low profile rider is booked (assuming he / she isn't the regular rider of the horse) then the stable most likely believes the horse is short of its peak. Trainer / Jockey statistics can provide a good guide here.

8. Don't presume that a wet track, big weight or wide barrier makes a first up horse a risk. Statistically there is no meaningful difference in returns from first up horses when assessed on these factors. In fact, first up horses with a big weight or wide barrier more often than not provide better returns.

FITNESS DANGER SIGNS

9. Read the stewards extracts for upcoming meetings to identify horses that may have fitness risks. Changes that affect a horses feet or legs (i.e. bar plates, synthetic filler, bandages etc.) are often a sign that not all is 100% right with the horse. Also, reports on previous runs like the horse bleeding, being galloped on, pulling up with respiratory distress or an injury all provide some cause to be wary of its fitness for today. 

10. If a horse is well into its preparation and suddenly starts to be less competitive, then it is likely to be declining in condition.  Make sure you assess this in the context of the class of race, how well suited the horse was by the conditions and whether or not it had every chance in the run. Good trainers will immediately detect when their horse needs a spell. However it's amazing that many trainers keep persisting with a horse that is racing below its best in the hope that it will win or at least pick up prize money.