BARRIERS

The influence of barrier positions is one of the most contentious issues in form analysis. Some jockeys and trainers claim that good barriers are critical to winning and many punters share that view, requiring that a horse be drawn well before they consider betting. 

A wide barrier increases the likelihood that the horse will:

1. Get caught wide and have to cover extra ground (sometimes without cover.)

2. Use extra energy to cross those inside it and take up a good position.

3. Drift back in the field further than desired because it lacks the early speed to take up a better position.

On the other hand, an inside barrier can make it easier for the jockey to position his / her mount to advantage and enjoy a good run until the business end of the race.

While these contrasts suggest that wide barriers are a disadvantage, their influence is not as great as many punters believe. Statistical studies show that the strike rate of horses given a genuine winning chance by the market (up to $10) is only 2-3% lower when coming from a wide draw (barrier 10+) as opposed to an inside draw (barrier 1-4). More importantly, the betting return from outside barriers is generally superior to that of inside barriers, which is a clear sign that the market overvalues the importance of a good draw.

The following guidelines will help you to keep the influence of barriers in perspective and as a result, improve the quality of your analysis and betting decisions.

Barrier Guidelines

1. Consider barriers to be a secondary factor amongst the mix of variables that influence winning chances. A wide drawn horse with the class, speed, form and fitness to win is an infinitely better prospect than a lesser credentialed horse with an inside draw.  

2. Remove the thought from your mind that a horse must have a good barrier in order for you to bet. Horses drawn wide win marginally less, but generally provide better returns.

3. The influence of barriers is rarely if ever the same from race to race. It depends on a number of factors such as:

a. The running style and early pace of each horse and their barrier position in relation to each other.

b. The track shape and distance to the first turn.

c. The weather, track condition and any prevailing track pattern / bias.

d. The planned tactics of jockeys

e. What actually happens in the first few seconds after the gates open.

Before you make any allowance for the effect of barriers in your form study, you should have at least considered the first two or three points in this list.

4. Make a habit of reviewing the barrier statistics for the track and distance of the race you are studying. There are some track / distance combinations where barriers do play a big role and this process will help alert you to them. Outside of that, these statistics will give you a more balanced and factual view about the impact of barriers at most tracks. The GTX System Developer is the perfect tool for doing this analysis.

5. Wide draws present a greater challenge to the jockey so make sure you consider them as part of the mix. A widely drawn horse with a poor performing jockey should be viewed differently to a widely drawn horse with a top performing jockey.

6. Don't assume that because a horse is much better drawn today it will improve its performance. Did its last start barrier actually hinder its performance? Is today's draw likely to make a difference to the position and / or type of run the horse will get?

The most important thing to remember is that many punters place too great an emphasis on barriers. There is an advantage to be gained if you are willing to adopt a more objective view, particularly when it comes to backing well qualified horses from wide draws.