WEIGHT

Weight has and will always be the foundation of thoroughbred racing, hence it is one of the factors we need to consider in assessing the chances of an upcoming race. The well-established principle in weight handicapping is that that 1.5 kg's is equal to 1 length. For example a reduction of 1.5 kg's in weight will improve a horse's performance by 1 length, while a 1.5 kg increase will slow it down by 1 length.

However our practical experience and even statistical evidence suggests that the importance of weight is not as great as traditional theory would have us believe.

Consider the following observations based on the study of thousands of past races:

• Top weighted horses have a higher strike rate than 2nd weighted horses, which have a higher strike rate than 3rd weighted horses and so on down the scale. 

• The strike rate of top weights is approximately double that of 5th weighted horses...and their strike rate is close to double that of 10th weighted horses. 

• Horses carrying higher weights tend to run faster times than horses carrying less weight.

• Horses rising in weight from their last start have a much higher strike rate than horses that drop in weight.

These statistics defy the rationale of weight in racing. If horses were affected by weight in the way traditional theory describes, then the official handicapping process would make them somewhat evenly matched in a race and these observations would not exist.

The law of physics convinces us that weight must have some effect on the speed and performance of a horse, but in reality that effect is impossible to measure and in any case, is dependent both the individual horse and circumstances of the race. The impact of 57kg's on a strongly framed horse in a race with slow early pace is minimal compared to a lightly framed horse in a race with fast early pace.

Weight Guidelines

From a practical viewpoint, there are many more important things that influence the outcome of a race than the weight a horse carries. Factors such as class, fitness, recent form, distance ability, early pace, in-run position and jockey ability can all override any benefit or disadvantage a horse may receive through weight.

With that in mind, we advocate that you treat weight as only a secondary factor of minor importance in your overall form study and selection process.  Primary factors such as those mentioned above are far more important and should always have the greatest impact on your race assessment.

Do your initial study of a race on primary factors and totally ignore the weight a horse has to carry and any change from it's recent starts. Once your initial study is done, identify your main winning chances and then look at the weights amongst those runners. There is no reason to re-examine horses that have not presented themselves as contenders on primary factors. No weight benefit will be enough to help them win.

When examining weight amongst your contenders, the main question you should be concerned with is "can the horse handle this weight?"

Some helpful guidelines:

1. Minor changes of 1-2kg's up or down can generally be ignored. This is especially true if the race is a handicap and the horse in question is weighted at 54kg's or lower.

2. If the horse is carrying a big weight, look at its previous history to see if it has carried a similar weight and run well in the past. If it has then there is no reason to alter your assessment. The only time to re-consider is if there is evidence that this weight may be above the horse's weight carrying threshold (i.e. it has failed with similar weights in the past.)

3. If the horse has a big weight well beyond what it has carried before, then don't automatically assume it will stop the horse from winning. At most make a minor adjustment to your assessment. Remember that the weight allocated to a horse is a function of its class and recent form, both of which are primary factors. The superior class and form that leads to the horse getting a big weight should always be more important in your mind.

4. Most trainers are likely to know their horses weight carrying threshold and if they are concerned about the weight allocated, they will either use an apprentice or alternatively find another race where the horse has a more reasonable weight. If the trainer is not concerned about the weight allocated, then there is no reason you should be either.  

5. Young improving horses in good form can easily accommodate weight increases and continue to perform better at each run. In most cases it's the class of race that will eventually halt their progress rather than the weight allocated.

6. Never rate a horse beyond it's previous best just because of a weight drop. Big weight drops can be a help, but only to a point. Every horse has a maximum ability in respect to how fast it can run over a given distance, irrespective of how little weight it has. Some credit may be given for a big drop at the top end of the scale, but ignore big weight drops at the bottom of the scale. Most horses can run just as fast with 54kg's as they can with 50kg's.

The 2005 Melbourne Cup - A Classic Example

One of the great examples of how the importance of weight can be over-rated and why primary factors should always be the focus came in the this year's Melbourne Cup (2005), won in dominant fashion by the champion mare Makybe Diva.

The market on the top few runners in the race was:

Looking at Makybe Diva's credentials for the race... she was undoubtedly the class horse of the field with a number of Group 1 wins to her credit including two previous Melbourne Cups (that's why she was allocated 58kg's). Her recent form was as good as you could ask for, coming off two straight wins including a dominant Cox Plate victory 10 days earlier. She was racing over her ideal distance of 3200m and at her favourite Flemington track. To top it all off, she had one of the best jockeys in Australia riding, Glenn Boss. On primary factors she had a clear edge on her rivals. 

The next 3 runners in the race were coming off good Caulfield Cup runs and had to be considered genuine contenders. However they certainly didn't measure up to Makybe Diva on primary factors such as overall class, distance ability and even jockey ability.

So why did bookmakers offer $4.50 and better about Makybe Diva, with the others so close behind her? The answer lies in the weights. Makybe Diva had 58kg's and had to give the others a significant amount of weight, especially Leica Falcon. Our fixation on the importance of weight created a good deal of publicity in Cup week with most judges claiming it would be too much of an impost for her. After all, weight is supposed to have it's greatest impact over long distances such as 3200m.

While she was still favourite in the race, the concerns about her weight and the supposed advantage held by the others saw the market prices compress to be quite close together.

If weight was ignored as a factor in the assessment of the race then there's no doubt that Makybe Diva was a clear standout and certainly big value at $4.50. Leica Falcon was unplaced in the Caulfield Cup, had no prior Group 1 form and was untried at 3200m...how could he possibly be so close to her in the market?

Next time you are faced with a class horse that has a clear edge on primary factors, don't be too concerned about it's weight...always remember the 2005 Melbourne Cup.

Summary

1. Weight has been the cornerstone of form analysis and ratings for decades. However our practical experience and statistical evidence suggests that it's only of minor importance.

2. Primary factors such as class, fitness, recent form, distance ability, early pace, in-run position and jockey ability are far more important and can all override any benefit or disadvantage a horse may receive through weight.

3. Treat weight as a secondary factor of minor importance in your overall form study and selection process. 

4. Do your initial study of a race on primary factors only. Totally ignore the weight a horse has to carry and any change from it's recent starts.

5. Re-examine weight amongst your contenders and only make changes if there is compelling evidence to do so. Use the guidelines above to help.