TRACK CONDITION (Wet Tracks)

Track Condition refers to the state of the ground that the races are held on (also called the "Going.") The latest innovation taken on by many race clubs in Australia is the use of a 10 point rating scale to describe the state of the track.

* Note that some clubs still use the simpler description of Fast, Good, Dead, Slow, Heavy.

Assessing the form when wet tracks are involved for either today's race or in past runs can be a problematic process filled with a high degree of uncertainty. Some horses produce their best on dry ground, some need wet ground, while others are versatile and can perform effectively on all surfaces.

Because of this uncertainty you will read a lot of advice that says not to bet on wet tracks. While the wet does pose an additional challenge in the selection process, there is absolutely no reason to shy away from betting as sensible analysis can still reveal some terrific betting opportunities. Statistical research across a broad range of racing parameters shows consistent results independent of the track condition and the betting market as a whole is no more or less accurate on wet tracks when compared to dry. If wet tracks were so problematical for punters then we certainly would not expect this to be the case.

There's no reason to be hesitant about betting on wet tracks, but there are still some key guidelines you need to keep in mind to help stay on the right path.

Top 10 Wet Track Guidelines

1. Weight does not become more significant on wet tracks. Our Form Basics section on Weight discusses how it tends to be overrated as an important form factor and the same applies on wet tracks. Don't get caught in the trap of penalising horses because they are carrying a big weight on Slow or Heavy ground. Our racing statistics in the February / March 06 Newsletter highlighted that this concept is nothing more than a myth.

2. Be careful about using wet track form to predict performance on a dry track. Some horses can suddenly show improvement when racing on a wet track and won't necessarily carry that form forward to their next start back on the dry. That improvement could come about because of a preference for the surface, help from track bias and / or or the opposition simply fail to handle it as well. Any of these factors make it unlikely the horse will perform as well back on dry so always looks for recent dry track form and take a balanced view. The opposite also applies if a horse performed a little below it's recent best when racing on the wet and returns to the dry today. It could easily bounce back to its best form.

3. Don't rely on wet track statistics to assess whether a horse is capable in wet ground. A Slow and Heavy track record of 2 - 0 - 1 may show that the horse has placed once on wet ground from two starts, but if the horse was beaten 8 lengths into 3rd then you should hardly feel confident it can produce it's best on wet ground. Consider an alternative record of 3 - 0 - 0, which shows no wins or places from three starts on the wet. These stats suggest that the horse might not handle the wet, but deeper investigation may reveal that it finished 4th in two of those runs beaten less than 2 lengths. If that was the case then it's likely that the horse can perform on wet ground. The key point to keep in mind is that things are often not what they seem, so it pays to dig a little deeper and find out what lies behind the statistics.

4. Consider the class of the race when assessing a horse's wet track performances. Early in their career good horses can often still win on unsuitable ground purely because they have a significant class edge over the field. However when they get to their right class level they may not be as effective on that same surface and need something more suitable to perform at their absolute best (this applies top both wet and dry tracks.) This is another reason why wet track statistics can be misleading. Many horse build a good wet track record in classes well below their true ability and don't in fact have the wet track advantage their record suggests when racing in stronger class.

5. Don't promote a horse above its exposed ability because of a good wet track record. Great wet track form is one thing, but each horse still only has a given level of ability. Well exposed horses racing out of their class rarely win, even if they have a superior wet track record.  

6. If you have no wet track form to go on then breeding can often provide a clue to help sway your opinion one way or another. Some sires are known to produce horses that handle wet ground while others seem to produce horses that struggle in the wet. Noted sires who's progeny have a good record on the wet include: Anabaa, Marwina, Langfuhr, Telesto, Stravinsky, Bureaucracy, Fasliyev, Belong To Me and Commands amongst many others. Sires who's progeny have on average a poor record in the wet include: Beautiful Crown, Mister C, Rory's Jester, Vettori, Greig, Volksraad and Western Symphony amongst others. Remember though that there are always exceptions to the rule and breeding alone will not guarantee performance one way or another, it's purely a guide you can use in the absence of other information.

7. If there is no evidence available to give you a clear opinion of whether a horse will handle the wet, then assume it will. This may seem a little dangerous and there's no doubt that sometimes the horse will fail to handle the going. However many other times it will handle the going and you will be rewarded with a better price because of that uncertainty. Remember that the trainer knows most about the horse and if he / she is happy to start on a rain affected track then why should you second guess them? In the absence of any evidence follow the trainer and assume the horse will perform. The record of fancied runners on Slow and Heavy tracks who have yet to start in either of those conditions is on par with dry tracks, so there is no reason to let that uncertainty scare you away from what might otherwise be a top betting proposition. 

8. Barriers are of far less importance than usual on wet tracks. In many cases it can be an advantage to draw and race wide on a wet track where the going is better. Statistically speaking, dutch betting all horses under $10 in the market drawn 9 or wider on a Slow or Heavy track has returned just a 1.9% loss in the last 3 years. Those drawn in barriers 1 to 3 have returned a 15% loss. The market typically overvalues inside barriers, particularly on wet tracks so don't shy away from betting your fancy just because it's drawn wide.

9. Distance increases are no more or less significant on wet tracks. There's a natural tendency to assume that a sharp distance increase from one run to the next combined with the difficulty of running on a wet track might make it tougher than usual for a horse to win. There is no evidence to support this. A study of races up to 2000m where fancied horses ($10 or less) were rising 150m or more in distance from their last start showed no difference in strike rate or profit when the subsequent run was on a wet track (Slow / Heavy) as opposed to a dry track (Fast / Dead). Distance changes are best assessed on a horse by horse basis independent of the prevailing track condition.

10. Don't always assume that a poor run on the wet was caused by failure to handle the track condition. There may have been other explanations such as luck in running, an injury or the fact that the horse was generally in poor form and would not have been competitive even if the race was on suitable ground.