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JOCKEYS

 

Jockeys are one of the most important yet underestimated factors in racing. A more in-depth discussion on the role jockeys play and why their skill is critical to success can be found in our original article Does The Jockey Really Matter?

 

Suffice to say here that if you want to maximise your success as a punter, then you must consider jockeys in your form analysis and especially bet decision making.

 

Following are some relevant points to consider

 

1. Recent Performance Record - What is the strike rate of the jockey from his / her last 50 and 100 rides considered a genuine winning chance by the market (less than or equal to 10/1)? Our Jockey Performance Page provides these statistics updated on a weekly basis.

 

 

 

2. The GTX Jockey Penalty - The GTX Program rates jockeys based on their short and long-term performance in Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races and then statistically normalises them to produce a 'Metropolitan equivalent' Jockey Penalty. Jockeys with a low penalty win more often and provide significantly better returns than jockeys with a high penalty. Jockeys with a rating of 5.0 (the jockeys whose recent records rate in the bottom 33%) are very difficult to profit from in the long-term. More details can be found in our article titled The New GTX Jockey Penalties.

 

3. Same Or Different Jockey Today? - Is today's jockey the same as last start? If the trainer has changed jockeys do you consider it to be a positive or negative change? Consider the recent performance and GTX penalty of each jockey as well as the two points below.

 

4. Previous Record On The Horse - Has this jockey ridden the horse before? How has the horse performed on those occasions? Is there anything you can interpret from this?

 

5. Jockey / Trainer Combination - The jockey that a trainer engages can often provide a guide to the stable's expectation of the horse that day. There are countless examples of jockey / trainer combinations that have a powerful strike rate and profit history. For example, so far this season Noel Callow has ridden 55 times for Lee Freedman, returning 32.7% strike rate and 31.1% profit. Clearly it's worthwhile paying attention to any runner the Callow rides for the Freedman stable. At the same time, Ben Melham has ridden 37 times for Lee Freedman, returning just a 10.8% strike rate and 53.9% loss (figures current as at 25/2/06).

 

The GTX System Developer provides an ideal tool to analyse trainer / jockey combinations. Following is an example of Lee Freedman runners ridden by his most frequently used jockeys so far this season 1/8/05 to 24/2/06 (all odds) .

 

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BET DECISION MAKING GUIDELINES

  • If you want to improve your betting results then you should consider the jockey in your decision making process.

  • In saying that, remember that Jockeys are just one of the primary factors you should consider. Never bet a horse just because of the jockey engaged or the trainer / jockey combination. Other primary factors must also support the horse as a good betting proposition.

  • Always base your assessment of jockeys on hard facts, not public perception.

  • If you're horse is likely to race on the lead then you can allow a little more latitude with the jockey.

  • On the other hand, if your horse usually settles somewhere from off the pace to back in the field then the significance of the jockey ability increases. Jockeys with a moderate or poor record riding horses that need to make up ground in the straight to win usually make for poor betting propositions.

  • Be wary of betting horses with a significantly negative jockey change or poor trainer / jockey combination, particularly if the horse is coming off a break or racing in less than ideal conditions.

  • Avoid betting selections to be ridden by a jockey with a poor overall / recent performance record, even if they have won on the horse before. In terms of statistics, anything less than a 14% strike rate on rides less than or equal to 10/1 is a concern.

  • There will be times that jockeys with inferior recent records win on your fancied horse, but in the long run they are a losing proposition. Your aim should be to only make good bets and that requires both a good horse and good jockey.