GTX - Educate - Stats & Systems

IN-RUN POSITION

Consideration of a horse's likely in-run position for today's race is a critical element of good analysis and profitable betting decisions.

Statistical evidence shows that:

Horses within the first four runners coming to the turn have a significant winning advantage and provide better than average returns.
Horses that are towards the rear of the field coming to the turn are at a significant disadvantage and provide much lower than average returns.

Horses settling in touch with the lead only have 1-4 lengths to make up in the straight and are much less likely to strike interference, lose momentum or cover extra ground. On the other hand, horses coming from the back in the field have many lengths to make up in the straight and are much more likely to cover extra ground and / or lose momentum as the jockey tries to navigate a clear path.

The pace of the race can influence the extent of this advantage or disadvantage, but regardless of that these principles still hold true.

The importance of in-running position was recognised decades ago in the work of the late Don Scott, who penalised horses that were likely to settle back in the field. Surprisingly though this part of his methodology often seems to be overlooked by devoted followers.

Likely Position In-Running

An essential part of good quality race assessment is establishing the likely in-run position of each runner. Examine the positions the horse has taken up in its past runs with the following guidelines in mind:

Distance: Past races that are close to today's distance provide the best guide. A horse that can settle on the pace over 1600m might not have the necessary speed to do so over 1200m today, so don't treat all past races the same way. As a horse steps up in distance it becomes easier to race in a more forward position. As it drops back in distance it becomes more difficult.
Recent runs: Always put more emphasis on the recent runs a horse has had. For example, if a horse had raced handy over 1600m last preparation, but appears to be settling midfield or worse over similar trips this preparation, you should be more inclined go with the recent evidence.
Barrier: Does the barrier draw tend to influence where the horse settles? Some horses can race forward from a good draw, but don't have the pace to cross when drawn wide.
Runs from a spell: Horses that are 1st up or coming off a short break can show more early speed than usual.
Gear Changes: The addition of blinkers can fire a horse up and give it the ability to race more forward than usual.
Jockey: Has this jockey exhibited a certain pattern with the horse before? Or does he / she generally have a preferred riding style that might influence where the horse will settle today?

After examining past runs you should have a good idea of where the horse is likely to attempt to settle in today's field. A useful approach is to put each horse into one of the following categories:

P	Pace (lead or right up near the lead)
H	Handy (just off the lead back to 4th)
MF	Midfield (5th or worse in the run)
B	Back (amongst the last few in the run)

If you've never considered in-running positions before then this exercise will give you powerful information to greatly improve the quality of your race assessments and betting decisions. A more advanced approach can involve taking this information to create your own speed map with the actual settling position of each horse and the likely pace, but that's certainly not essential. Much of the additional work is pure speculation that doesn't necessarily translate into added value.

Guidelines for Practical Application

From a ratings perspective, look to penalise horses that are likely to settle midfield or worse in the run, particularly those that will be well back.
The larger the field size, the more of a disadvantage getting back in the field is. There is significantly more ground to make up and a much greater chance of striking interference.
Moderate or poor performing jockeys on horses that settle back create additional risk, so penalise them accordingly.
Don't let wide barriers put you off horses that are likely to settle up on the pace. Sometimes they will get caught wide and be disadvantaged, but other times they will get across comfortably and enjoy a good run. Market prices tend to be over-sensitive to wide barriers.
If two horses are closely matched on other key aspects, you will be much better off in the long-term giving the advantage to the horse that settles closer to the lead.
Think long and hard about betting horses that are likely to come from back in the field, irrespective of whether they appear to be "value." Statistics show it is extremely difficult, if not impossible to make a long-term profit betting on back markers.
In-form, well fancied horses that settle up near the lead are excellent betting propositions and on the whole are still undervalued by the betting market.