CLASS
INTRODUCTION
In thoroughbred
racing, the term "class" is used in two different ways. Firstly it is
used to describe the different types and grading of races in Australia: at the lowest end of the class hierarchy is a Maiden race and at
the highest end is a Group 1 Weight For Age (WFA) race. Secondly and more importantly from a
handicapping perspective, class refers to the ability of a horse
compared to its rivals.
In this respect, class
can be described as the combination of speed, stamina and
determination a horse possesses, qualities that allow it to win or be competitive
at a given level of competition. The higher the grade of race, the
greater the speed, stamina and determination a horse needs to win. A
horse that has won or placed at Group 1 level has more class (ability)
than a horse that can only be competitive in restricted grade.
The ability to understand and accurately
assess class is one of the most important elements of good form
analysis. If a horse does not have the necessary class
(ability) to
win the race, then other positive factors such as form, fitness,
distance, weight, barrier, jockey etc. are largely irrelevant.
The following guidelines provide a
framework that can help you to assess class when doing the form:
1. CLASS PROFILE
Consider the horse's overall career and in
particular the last 12 runs not exceeding 12 months.
-
What is the highest class the horse has
won in? How many times?
-
What is the highest class the horse has
been competitive in (within two lengths of the winner)? How many times?
-
Outside of the above, what class has the
horse been expected to be competitive in? That is, races where it started
up to $7 in betting.
-
What class has the horse attempted and
failed in?
Be sure to consider relevant factors that
may have affected the horse's competitiveness in a particular run. For
example, if a horse's best form is on dry ground, then a failure up in
class on slow ground should not be viewed in the same way as a similar
failure on good ground.
2. CURRENT CLASS ASSESSMENT
Summarise the current class of the horse
with one or more of the following statements:
-
The horse has been a winner and / or
consistent competitive performer up to ? class
-
The horse has been thereabouts (2-4
lengths away) and
sometimes competitive up to ? class
-
The horse has failed to be competitive in
? attempts in ? class.
3. CLASS POTENTIAL
At some point in its career a horse will
reach its class peak, which is the level of competition beyond which it
is unable to be competitive. When a horse begins its career though, it's
impossible to predict with accuracy what that class level will be. As
with
human athletes, it takes time, a good deal of conditioning and
competitive experience for a horse to reach its potential.
For that reason most trainers start their
horses in low class races (Maidens or Restricted grade) and then
progress to higher levels of competition as the horse's ability allows.
Generally speaking the first 10-15
starts of a horse's career will give a good guide to its likely
class potential. Genuine top class horses do however tend to progress much
faster than others. For example our best horses over the past decade
including Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Sunline, Northerly, Lonhro,
Grand Armee, Elvstroem and Makybe Diva all showed their ability to win
or be competitive in the best company within their first 10 starts.
In addition to assessing a horse's current
class, it's important to evaluate if:
-
The horse is still moving through the
classes and yet to reach its peak
-
The horse has most likely reached its
peak and is holding competitiveness at that level
-
The horse has reached its peak and is
possibly declining in competitiveness (all horses reach this point at
some stage in their career.)
Horses that are still improving and yet to
reach their class peak are most likely to have:
-
Had 15 starts or less
-
Won a number of races already, some of
them with relative ease (i.e. by more than 1 length)
-
Started at a short price in a number of their
runs
For these types of horses it's worthwhile
to try to make some judgment on the class level you think they can
reach.
Of course some horses can be late bloomers
and may not begin to show their true potential until after they have had
15 starts. Regal Roller is one horse that comes to mind. After 15 starts
he had only won an Open handicap race and failed twice in Group 3
company. He gave no indication that he could eventually progress through
the classes to win three Group 1 races (so far).
If a horse starts to win and be
consistently competitive in stronger class then don't let
the fact it has had more than 15 starts limit your judgment. This is
especially true if the horse is starting to race over a longer distance
than it has in the past.
4. CLASS FOR TODAY'S RACE
The most important part of your analysis
is to classify the horse's inherent class in relation to today's race.
On the evidence available make an
assessment of whether the horse is:
-
Capable of handling stronger class than this race (has won
or been consistently competitive in higher class races)
-
Equal to the class of this race (has won
or been consistently competitive in similar races)
-
Yet to be proven but should (or could)
be up to this class.
-
Yet to be proven but is unlikely to be
up to this class
-
Definitely outclassed.
Horses that are not up to the class of
today's race rarely win and can be quickly eliminated from further
consideration. Those that are up to the class of today's race
(or better) can be considered contenders, subject to further
analysis on factors such as fitness, form, distance, weight etc.
GTX & SMARTFORM™ MAKES IT EASY TO ASSESS
CLASS!
Let's take a look at a few examples of class
assessment using the GTX Program and unique Form Filter function. Click
on each horse below to view the example:
El
Segundo 8 - 4 - 2 4G Pins - Palos Verdes (NZ) C W Little Caulfield
Kablammo 29 - 10 - 4 6G
Marauding (NZ) - Jovan (NZ) D Williams Goulburn
Imana 21 - 3 - 9 5M
Thunder Gulch (USA) - Zarissa (NZ) G H Walter Warwick Farm
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