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The Impact Of Strike Rate
Following the
publication of last
months article on punting variance we've had a number of
requests for more figures based on a range of different strike
rates. For
example, what range could my results fall between if I have a 40% strike rate
as opposed to a 25% strike rate? If you haven't yet read the
original article
CLICK HERE to read it now.
Results
Variance By Strike Rate (assuming 10% long-term POT)
|
200 Bet Cycle |
POT 68% of time |
POT 95% of time |
|
SR% |
Avg Div |
From |
To |
From |
To |
|
20% |
$ 5.50 |
-5.6% |
25.6% |
-21.1% |
41.1% |
|
25% |
$ 4.40 |
-3.5% |
23.5% |
-16.9% |
36.9% |
|
30% |
$ 3.67 |
-1.9% |
21.9% |
-13.8% |
33.8% |
|
35% |
$ 3.14 |
-0.6% |
20.6% |
-11.2% |
31.2% |
|
40% |
$ 2.75 |
0.5% |
19.5% |
-9.1% |
29.1% |
|
45% |
$ 2.44 |
1.4% |
18.6% |
-7.2% |
27.2% |
|
50% |
$ 2.20 |
2.2% |
17.8% |
-5.6% |
25.6% |
Notice the
impact of strike rate here in a 200 bet cycle. With a 20% strike
rate your results could fall anywhere between -21% and +41%,
while with a 45% strike rate they could fall between -7% and
+27%. When you consider the long-term profit of 10% on turnover,
a 20% strike rate can produce a downside of -31% from the
average, but also an upside of +31% on the average. A 45% strike
rate on the other hand produces a much narrower range, with just
a ±17%
swing from the average. This raises an important point that can
be considered one of the universal truths of punting.
"The
lower your strike rate, the more volatile your results will be
and vice-versa."
If in the past you believed that strike rate wasn't important,
then hopefully
this article will change your mind. With a 20% strike rate you
must be prepared to deal with the fact that after 200 bets you
could be losing 20% on turnover. At 8 bets per week this is
approximately 6 months worth of punting. Very few people could
go six months showing a 20% loss and still continue on with
confidence in their selection method. In reality though, even if
you are make a long-term profit of 10%, you could very well experience this type of variance.
On the other hand, with a 40% strike rate the worst you might
face is around -9%. Both have a long-term profit of 10%,
but in practice the consequences of a 40% strike rate are much
easier to deal with.
Remember that
these figures are based on a 200 bet cycle and in a smaller
cycle of say 100 bets, the figures will be even more extreme.
For example, with a 20% strike rate a 100 bet cycle (3 months at
8 bets per week) could see you losing up to 34% profit on
turnover. You need both nerves of steel and deep pockets to deal
with this kind of variance.
With increased
variance comes greater financial (bankroll) and psychological
pressure in punting, which ultimately makes it harder to win.
With that in mind we can put forward another universal truth of
punting that states:
"The
lower your strike rate, the more challenging it is to be a
long-term winner."
This doesn't
mean that you shouldn't use betting strategies that typically
produce a low strike
rate, far from it. It highlights though that you must realise
how much more difficult they are to succeed with and be prepared
to deal with those challenges when they arise. Some punters have
the mindset to do this, while others do not. The key is to
understand the type of person you are and the strategy that will
give you the best chance of success.
Good punting.
Daniel
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