The Melbourne Cup - Finding The Genuine Chances

No horse race captures the attention of the Australian public like the Melbourne Cup. Having a bet in the big race is a noted part of Australian culture, but ironically it's one of the more difficult races in the year to single out a winner.

The 24 runner field size, barrier draws, 3200m distance factor, overseas contenders, expert tips and pre-race media hype about individual runners, betting plunges etc. all serve to create plenty of uncertainty for punters.

The way I like to approach the big race is to first of all cut the field down to a manageable number of genuine contenders. There are many ways you can do this, but one thing I've found that's important is to have some clear criteria on which to include or exclude horses. If you don't, it's easy to make a case for too many runners and the process fails to achieve its original objective. You can end up just as confused as when you started.

To develop that criteria I decided to look at history and create a profile of the types of horses that typically win the Melbourne Cup. I have detailed records for the last 17 runnings of the Cup and while that's hardly a sample size to hang my hat on, there must be some basis for the criteria used and no approach is flawless.

Betting Market Confidence

Like most races, the betting market provides an excellent guide to winning chances and recent history shows that the Melbourne Cup is not a race for longshots. 13 of the last 17 winners (76.5%) have started at 10/1 or less with bookmakers, while the other 4 winners (Delta Blues, Brew, Jeune and Vintage Crop) started between 14/1 and 17/1. Only one of the last 30 winners (3.3%) have started at 20/1 or longer. 

As a first step, I'm happy to eliminate all runners that are 20/1 or longer on race day, irrespective of other factors. Based on past years this step alone will cut the field down to between 5 and 9 runners.

Last Start Form

Recent history shows that the Melbourne Cup winner has excellent last start form. 14 of the 17 winners since 1990 (82.4%) have won (11) or placed (3) at their most recent start. The 3 winners that placed in their lead up run were:

• Kingston Rule (1990) 2nd beaten just 0.5 lengths in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes.

• Makybe Diva (2004) 2nd beaten a nose in the Caulfield Cup by Elvstroem

• Delta Blues (2006) 3rd beaten just 0.6L in the Caulfield Cup after sitting wide without cover.

The 3 winners that didn't win or place at their last start were:

• Makybe Diva (2003) who finished 4th beaten 1.2L in the Caulfield Cup after not getting a clear run in the straight.

• Jezabeel (1998) who finished 6th beaten 2.1 lengths in the Caulfield Cup and should have won, but for getting knocked over the running rail in the last 100m by the import Taufan’s Melody.

• Subzero (1992) who is the odd one out, finishing 5th beaten 2.2 lengths in the Mackinnon Stakes.

Accounting for the bad luck of Makybe Diva and Jezabeel, we can say that 16 of the last 17 runners either won or finished very close to the winner at their last start.

There's always plenty of speculation about lead up form and horses improving to win on Cup day, but history shows that the Cup winner has already demonstrated top form, rather than needing to improve a few lengths to reach that level.  With this in mind, my 2nd step is to eliminate any horse less than 20/1 that doesn't meet this form criteria. An element of judgement is required, but the examples above give a clear indication of the types of performance I am looking for. 

The Speed Factor

History shows that the Melbourne Cup winner needs to be capable of running what I would call very fast time (around a 110 rating on my figures.) Every one of the last 17 Cup winners has achieved this level in one of their last 2 runs and 15 of them achieved it at their last start.

It doesn't surprise me that this is the case as the Melbourne Cup is always run at a genuine tempo, requiring excellent stamina and the ability to sustain high speed over the entire distance. A fast recent run signals that the horse is fit enough to cope with the sustained pressure of a Melbourne Cup and most importantly that it is physically capable of running the time that it typically takes to win a Melbourne Cup.

It really doesn't matter what time ratings you use, the Trakform ratings also provide a strong guide. My Pace Advantage analysis of the Melbourne Cup (available on race day) will highlight the horses that meet the "speed" criteria.

Barriers

History shows that barriers, or more specifically wide barriers are an insignificant factor when it comes to identifying the Melbourne Cup winner. Since 1990 there have been 9 winners start from barrier 10 or wider.

• 2006 - Delta Blue won from barrier 10

• 2005 - Makybe Diva won from barrier 14

• 2003 - Makybe Diva won from barrier 14

• 2000 - Brew won from barrier 22

• 1999 - Rogan Josh won from barrier barrier 21

• 1998 - Jezabeel won from barrier 16

• 1995 - Doriemus won from barrier 21

• 1992 - Subzero won from barrier 14

• 1991 - Let's Elope won from barrier 10

I'm happy to ignore the barrier draw for any runner that profiles as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender..

Summary

Using clear criteria to cut down the Melbourne Cup field is an excellent first step to finding the winner and isolating horses to focus your exotic bets on. Best of all, this process requires minimal time and effort.

History over the last 17 years shows that the Melbourne Cup winner:

• Is highly likely to start at less than 20/1 in bookmaker markets

• Will be coming off a top last start performance, either winning or finishing very close to the winner.

• Has time ratings in one of their last two starts that demonstrate the ability to run fast overall time.

• Can be drawn wide.

Of course the year will come where a winner arrives that doesn't meet this criteria, but no method is perfect. Remember that the purpose of this process is to find the serious chances in the race, not to find the winner in one. The Melbourne Cup is one of the more difficult races each year to bet one out with confidence.

Applying these principles will typically cut the 24 horse field down to 3-5 genuine contenders, with much more clarity and confidence than you will probably achieve by using other means. If you don't want to do this work yourself, then my own analysis will be available in the Pace Advantage sheets on Melbourne Cup day.

Once the contenders are identified it's then a matter of constructing your betting strategy, whether it be backing a few of the chances to win and / or standing them out to win with other runners in the exotics. The Melbourne Cup has provided some massive exotic dividends in recent years, but the race winner has come from the small group of horses that meet the criteria specified here. It's well worth keeping in mind. 

Good punting

Daniel O'Sullivan