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Horse Profiling - The Basis Of Effective From Study

 

In professional sports, Coaches often keep detailed profiles of opposition players that highlight their skills, preferences and habits in certain situations. This information plays a key role in the development of their game plan and can often be the difference between winning and losing. Horse racing and punting can be viewed in the same way. In order to create a winning game plan you ideally need an in-depth knowledge of the competitors. This holds true for horses, jockeys and trainers, but in this article we will specifically focus on horses.

 

Horse Profiling is the process of building an in-depth knowledge of a horse in respect to

 

(1) Its overall level of ability

 

(2) Its preferences and likely performance under certain conditions.

 

 

When studying a race you don't need to profile every horse, but it's helpful to go through the process for at least the main chances.

 

 

Profiling A Horse

 

Using a good quality form history (such as GTX Smartform) analyse the horse’s record and make notes in relation to the following:

 

 

CLASS PEAK

  • What is the highest class the horse has won and/or been competitive in (i.e. within 1.5 lengths of the winner)?

  • What class has the horse tried and not been competitive in?

CAREER FORM CYCLE

 

Consider the age of the horse, its number of starts and form over the past 12 months.

  • Is the horse improving and still moving through the grades?

  • Or do you suspect it has already reached its class peak and may be either holding or declining in competitiveness?

POTENTIAL

  • Consider the horse's class peak & career form cycle and try to estimate the level you think it could reach. Specifics are not really needed, only generalisations.

  • Does the horse look like it will measure up to Group racing? Or does it look destined to only ever be competitive in Open Handicaps or even Restricted events?

My article titled Form Basics - Class provides some more information on making these judgements.

 

 

DISTANCE

  • Over what distance range has the horse produced its best?

  • Over what distances has the horse failed?

  • Does it give the impression it could be better over a longer distance than it has raced over in the past?

FITNESS

  • How are the horse’s runs usually spaced?

  • Is there a pattern to its good performances? Does it always win or run well fresh, first or second up?

  • Does the horse need regular racing and a number of runs from a spell to show its best?

 

RUNNING STYLE

  • Does the horse like to race close to the lead, off the pace a little, or come from well back?

  • Does the race distance or barrier draw influence where the horse settles?

  • From what running position does the horse usually produce its best?

PACE

  • Does the horse seem to perform better in "sit and sprint" type races that have a slow early pace or does it need pace on?

  • Does the horse seem versatile enough to perform well regardless of the early pace?

WEIGHT

  • Is there any evidence that the horse has a weight-carrying threshold?

TRACK

  • Does the horse seem to run particularly well or poorly at certain tracks?

TRACK CONDITION

  • In what going has the horse performed best?

  • Does it show a notable preference or disliking for a particular track condition?

FORM PATTERNS

  • Does the horse exhibit good form prior to its wins? Or does it have a habit of turning a failure one run into a win the next?

  • When racing in the right conditions, how consistent is the horse?

JOCKEY

  • Does the horse have a regular jockey?

  • Does the horse seem to go well when a particular jockey is engaged?

GEAR

  • Does the horse usually race in additional gear such as blinkers, winkers, tongue-tie or different bits (i.e. lugging bit)?

  • Is there a history of certain gear changes affecting performance in a positive way (i.e. blinkers on)?

OTHER CHARACTERISTICS

  • Are there any other positive traits the horse has, e.g. a sharp burst of acceleration or signs of courage?

  • Are there any negative habits the horse displays, e.g. hanging in or out under pressure, over-racing, and slowness out of the barriers?

  • If you attend the track and can see the horse prior to racing, how does it usually look? Is it relaxed and alert, or fractious? Are there any patterns in how the horse looks pre-race to how it performs?

 

Many of these points require subjective judgement and this is where your own racing know-how will come into play. In some cases you may not have enough information to make an accurate decision and that’s okay. The key is to develop the areas you can right now and to be aware of those you need to learn more about.

 

You don't need to restrict your profile just to these points. Anything you can uncover that might influence a horse's performance is valuable information. Outside of the form, it may come from a jockey / trainer comment or your own observations when watching the horse race.  

 

 

 

 

Profiling a horse in this way gives you all the information you need to effectively tackle other key steps in the form study process, namely:

 

1. Interpreting the horse's recent form

2. Predicting today's likely performance.

 

Using Your Profile To Interpret Recent Form

 

 

My article titled Form Basics - Recent Form provides a good framework to examine past runs against the details contained in your Horse Profile. In summary the key points of this are:

 

1. How well suited was the horse? (according to key aspects of the race against your Horse Profile.)

2. How was the horse expected to perform?

3. How did the horse perform?

 

Based on what your Profile tells you about the suitability of the race and conditions, you can then make an accurate judgement about the true merit of the horses run. Was it poorly suited but ran well? Or was it ideally suited but only ran a fair race?

 

 

Using Your Profile To Predict Today's Likely Performance

 

  • According to your Horse Profile, how suitable are today's conditions? (class, distance, going, fitness, weight, barrier, in-run position, pace etc.)

  • Are they more or less suitable than those the horse faced in its recent runs?

  • Can you expect the horse to run better, worse or the same compared to its recent runs?

  • How does the performance you expect place the horse in terms winning today's race? For example, if the horse ran well when poorly suited last start and is better suited today, you would expect it to be a strong winning chance. See my article Form Basics - Recent Form for a more comprehensive coverage of the different scenarios you will come across and likely performance you should expect.

 

 

GTX and Horse Profiling

 

The Horse Profile database in GTX is the perfect place to record your profile information. Once entered the information remains attached to that horse and will appear each time it races.

 

Following is an example of the Horse Profile database window:

 

 

 

Without the knowledge a Horse Profile gives you, it's very difficult to properly assess form and make accurate judgements about what to expect today. Punting is a very competitive game and if you are off the pace just a little bit in this regard, how can you expect to maintain a winning advantage?

 

Through the process of Horse Profiling you will know exactly when a horse is suited and can be expected to produce its best and just as importantly, when it is poorly suited and might struggle. These vital clues can often highlight terrific profit making opportunities. I find that the majority of them arise amongst the first few favourites in a race, especially when your Profile says that one of the key chances has a few things against it that the market may have overlooked.

 

 

 

Good punting

Daniel O'Sullivan