The Myth About Backing Favourites 

The myth and stigma surrounding the backing of favourites is something that has always fascinated me. Many so-called experts say that you should steer clear of favourites because they are bet by the majority of punters and therefore represent poor value.

Nothing could be further from the truth! Contrary to popular belief, favourites represent one of the best profit making opportunities in racing!

Consider the following table of strike rate and profit figures for favourite rankings over the 2003 calendar year (nearly 14,000 races, based on NSW TAB dividends)

* NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, WA races only. Excludes hurdle and steeple races

The general pattern is obvious. The further down the favourite ranking a horse is, the worse that group performs from a profit making perspective.

There is nothing astonishing about these figures but it raises the question… 'Why on earth are favourites considered poor betting propositions in comparison to other horses?' They actually lose less than other horses so it's nothing more than a punting myth!

It has been a well-known fact for decades that backing favourites will lose you somewhere between 8-12% profit on turnover year after year. However for the first time ever, the power of the GTX system developer allows us to shed some light on this previously indisputable 8-12% figure.

Take a look at the same table for favourites as above, but this time using the best of the NSW TAB and official Starting Price as the dividend (just one of many options in GTX).

In reality all favourites only lost 3.5% profit on turnover during 2003. This is the first time I am aware that such a significant piece of analysis has been made publicly available, thanks to the GTX System Developer program. In previous years that figure has ranged anywhere between 3% and 6% loss on turnover. Not bad!

Remember that we are talking about nearly 14,000 bets in a year or 269 bets per week. I don't know of any other group of automatic contenders that leaves you with such a small loss.

If you could find a way to lift the strike rate from 31.6% to 34.4% with the same average win dividend, you would be making 5% profit on turnover. Lift the strike rate to 36% and the profit would be 10% on turnover, still with thousands of bets per year.

It doesn't seem all that difficult does it?

With such a small loss before you even start conducting your own analysis, favourites most certainly represent one of the best profit making opportunities in racing. Ignoring the hype and basing your philosophies on hard facts is what smart punting is all about. Other experts however will continue to promote the myth that says favourites are bad bets.

The challenge is of course to develop strategies to eliminate the poor favourites and focus on the legitimate ones, so you can lift the strike rate and turn the small loss into a profit. The GTX System Developer is a fantastic tool for doing this type of analysis. You can focus on favourites and analyse them by hundreds of different factors across thousands of past races, all with the click of a mouse. It makes light work of identifying the factors that will and won't help you to make a profit.

You may like to consider some possible strategies and try them out on paper for yourself. Feel free to email me about your ideas if you like.

In future articles I will continue on the topic of favourites as good betting propositions and cover some possible strategies to make a regular profit. There is one strategy using TRB ratings that continues to make profits over thousands of bets per year, so stay tuned!

Remember, always punt smart!

Daniel O'Sullivan
The Form-Pro