Selection Spotlight - The Jockey Factor

Introduction

I've long been a believer in the role that jockeys play in deciding the outcome of races and therefore in their importance when it comes to making good bets. A significant part of my betting decision depends on the form and record of the jockey riding.

If the jockey has a poor winning record on strong market chances (indicated by a low strike rate and a big betting loss) then I am very reluctant to bet. I would rather pass the race and wait until I find a good betting proposition with a jockey that has a better winning record. In the long run, success is about making bets that have a profitable edge and regularly supporting jockeys with a poor winning record cannot in any way help you to achieve that goal

Does It Make A Difference?

Records are a punter's best friend and to help stay on top of my game I like to measure and analyse many different aspects of performance, including the betting decisions I make about jockeys. Although I have been focusing on jockeys for 4-5 years, it was only in January 2006 I started using the User Horse Flags in GTX to record those bets I didn't make purely because of the jockey riding.

A large number of these potential bets came from simple rule based strategies, both my own and those published on the TRB web site. On the whole these strategies provide a great set of profitable selections, but as discussed in a number of places on this site, it's well worthwhile (and I would argue essential) that you review each contender and seek to eliminate those with key things against them, such as the jockey.

Following is an output from the GTX System Developer, showing the bets I did not make in 2006 because of the jockey riding (sorted by market rank.)

In total there were 115 horses in 2006 that had all the characteristics I look for in profitable bets, with the exception of the jockey riding. For that reason I decided not to bet. As you can see, 24% of these horses still won, but the betting return was a massive loss, which is consistent with the type of record those jockeys tend to have.

Most of these were favourites and their performance was close to five times worse than the market average. That in itself says jockeys play a big role in each race and avoiding those with a poor record can have a significant impact on your bottom line. The decisions I made in 2006 saved me a fortune!

In 2007 those decisions are following a similar pattern.

Just over 130 events is certainly not enough to represent the long-term, but there is no way that these jockeys will ever become profitable to bet... it's just a matter of 'how much' they save me each year.

Also consider the other end of the scale, that is bets made with the very best jockeys riding. The following shot shows bets from 1st Jan 2006 to 9th Feb 2007 ridden by one of the current members of the TRB Stable Jockey List.

The gap between the two groups is astounding and hopefully it helps to highlight just how much difference jockeys can make in your punting. 

How Do You Do It?

When reviewing a jockey's record it's not appropriate to include all of their rides as they contain a mixture of good winning chances, moderate winning chances and no hopers. When it comes to moderate chances and no hopers, it wouldn't matter who was riding, they will rarely win and the jockeys record will seem poor.

I'm most interested in the jockey's record when they are riding horses that the market says have a top chance. I use a cut off of $5.00 and less in the bookmakers market (4/1 SP).

I don't have any hard and fast rules about what a jockey's statistics need to say in order for me to bet, but the following table gives you a rough guide to how I look at them:

Using The GTX System Developer

The easiest way to get the jockey statistics you need to make good betting decisions is through the GTX System Developer. You can include anywhere from 1 to 50 jockeys in your analysis and cut off their rides at any price you wish (I used $5.00 and less.) Creating a list of all jockeys riding at a particular meeting and then printing the results will give you a great reference point when doing the form and making your betting decisions.

Following is a small sample of jockey records that fit into the various categories outlined above (based on rides <=$5.00 over the last 6 months):

If you're not considering the jockey in your betting decisions then hopefully the statistics from my betting encourage you to do so. The key thing to remember is that there will be bets you pass that get up and win. Based on my experience about 24% of them still win and closer to 28% if they are favourite. However by using the GTX Horse Flags to keep records of your decisions, you will soon see that you are much better off in the long run to let them go. The end result will be a dramatic increase in your strike rate and most importantly profit!

Daniel O’Sullivan