“Punt-Smart” with Exotics – Quinellas

Many of the questions I receive from punters are about the best way to make money by betting exotics. For those who don’t know, “exotics” is a general term given to those bet types outside of basic win and place wagers. They include Quinellas, Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas, First4’s and even All Ups, Doubles, Trebles and Quadrellas.

If you’re considering betting on exotics then the first point you should understand is that exotics are not an easy road to punting riches. If you have bet on exotics before then undoubtedly you know this already. The big dividends may be appealing and simple enough to collect in concept or on paper when you review past races, but the reality of live racing situations is much more difficult.

Your winning strike rate from exotics will nearly always be lower than win betting and therefore your run of outs much longer. You need to be prepared and understand that it’s entirely possible to go 20, 30 or even 40 races without a decent collect. One good collect will often recover all of your previous losses and then some, but that time in between can wreak havoc with not only your bankroll but also your psychological well being as a punter. Exotics are certainly not for the faint hearted.

With those cautionary words out of the way, lets focus on the opportunities presented by exotics and offer some effective money making strategies to enable you to take advantage of them.

Walk Before You Run

If you are new to exotic punting (or not new for that matter), my advice is to start with the Quinella.

Why?

Well firstly they are much simpler to master than Trifectas or First4’s. Your strike rate with Quinellas will be higher than other types of exotics, which naturally results in shorter losing runs. For that reason they provide an easier introduction to exotic betting and will give an important indication of how you will cope with this type of betting. To put it another way, it’s a good idea to learn to walk before you run, especially where betting and money is involved.

Secondly and perhaps most importantly, if you are unable to successfully bet Quinellas then it’s highly unlikely that you will be successful with other exotic types. The only outcome is that you will just lose more of your bankroll.  

With that in mind, let’s start with some Quinella basics.

Quinella Basics

Taking a Quinella means you have to pick 1^st and 2^nd in the race, but they can finish in any order. So if I were to take horse A and horse B in a Quinella the cost would be $1.

If the result was A – B or B – A, I would collect as my two horses filled 1^st and 2^nd place.

Boxing horses

What if I want to take more than two horses in a Quinella?

Taking more than two horses where any of them can fill 1^st and 2^nd place is called a boxed Quinella. The cost of boxing more than two horses in a Quinella (for a $1 unit) can be worked out simply with the following equation:

x (x-1) / 2      where X = the number of horses you want to box in your Quinella.

If I wanted to box four horses in a Quinella the cost for a $1 unit would be 4 multiplied by (4-1) divided by 2 = $6. A cost of $6 means you effectively have six winning combinations with $1 on each:

Using A Rover

It is also possible to take more than two horses in a Quinella without boxing them. You can make one horse a rover (in some states referred to as a Standout), which means that horse must run 1^st or 2^nd.

In the above example, if I made horse A my rover and took it with horses B, C and D in a Quinella then horse A must run 1^st or 2^nd to collect. The possible winning combinations are then:

Note there are only three possible winning combinations so the cost for a $1 unit is $3.

The equation for working out the number of combinations using a rover is simply (x-1) where x is the total number of horses in the Quinella. In this example it would be (4-1) = 3.

Betting Strategies

The first golden rule of betting exotics (or any betting for that matter) is only bet when you think there is value.  

What does that mean? Well, if your assessment of a race is largely the same as the market’s then there is no real value in betting exotics. However if there is a meaningful discrepancy between the market and your top two or three rated horses then there may be an opportunity to bet. I prefer to stick to my top two rated horses to find value for a Quinella, sometimes stretching to the third horse if there is significant value.

My preferred betting approach is to identify my value horse and take it as a rover with a group of other runners, usually from my top five to six other rated runners.

If my value horse runs 1^st or 2^nd then more often than not I will collect the Quinella. What’s more, because I have focused on collecting with my value runner the dividend is likely to be worthwhile.

Boxed Quinellas?

I am not a big fan of taking boxed combinations in exotics. If you follow the golden rule of betting only when you think there is value, then you should only take combinations that include your value horse. By boxing a Quinella you are putting money on combinations that don’t include your value horse.

Notice from the above example that it costs $6 to box four horses in a Quinella but only $3 if I stood out my value horse A as a rover with the other 3 horses. No matter how many horses you take, you can always have two Quinella bets using a value-based rover for the cost of the same number of horses in a boxed Quinella. I know which way I would rather bet.

Real Life Examples

Let’s look at a couple of recent races that provided ideal Quinella betting opportunities. All races have been taken from the ratings provided to subscribers of my free Pace Advantage Ratings service.

Example 1:            1^st May Doomben Race 2 - 1020m CL6 Hcp

In this race there was a notable market discrepancy on two out of the top three horses. Power Break was my 2^nd pick rated at $8 but paying over $26 on the NSW TAB. He was definitely a value horse. Distinctive Dancer is a clear top pick on the ratings and in the market at $5.40, a good deal greater than my rated price of $2.90.

A point worth mentioning here about value; Your judgement shouldn’t be as simple as comparing rated prices against market prices. Value is more a judgement about your opinion against the market’s opinion, prices are only a guide. If your ranked order is exactly the same as the market for the top two or three horses then there is unlikely to be any great exotic value. 

Ideally you are looking for scenarios where you have a horse in the top two or three but the market has it at least one position worse, preferably two or more positions worse, particularly for those runners that are not your top rated. In this example Distinctive Dancer was my top pick but 2^nd pick in the market. Under my own betting I qualified him as a value horse so I included him in this example.

The Quinella Bet

Using the strategy outlined there were two Quinella bets for this race: 

1. Power Break as a rover with the 5 other rated horses: cost = $5 (for a $1 unit)
2. Distinctive Dancer as a rover with the 5 other rated horses: cost = $5 (for a $1 unit)

The total outlay in the race would have been $10 if you took each combination for a $1 unit. Depending on your bank size and betting comfort zone you can always place more than $1 on each combination. My own approach is to outlay between $100 and $200 on a Quinella, which results in having each combination 10 to 20 times, depending on the number of rovers and other horses included.

The result for this race was: 

The Quinella paid $258.30 for a $1 unit. Taking each Quinella 10 times, the total outlay was $100 and the collect over $2,500, a healthy profit.

Example 2:             1^st May Doomben Race 6 – 1350m 3YO G3

The Pace Advantage ratings for this race were:

In this race my opinion differed from the market’s in that I had Gallieni a clear-cut top pick in the race ahead of Kings Chapel. The market however had it the other way around so Gallieni legitimately qualified as a value bet.

The Quinella Bet

Taking Gallieni as a rover with the five other rated horses 20 times required an outlay of only $100. As Pace Advantage subscribers know, Gallieni won the race by 4 lengths.

The result for this race was: 

With Drunken Joker running into 2^nd place and the Quinella paid $71.80. The collect of 20 times on an outlay of $100 was $1,436.

Of course a double figure selection doesn’t always fill the other position and if Kings Chapel or Face Value had run 2^nd the dividend would most likely have been around $10 for a $1 unit. With advanced exotic staking you can place more on the favoured combinations (that will return a lower dividend) and less on the longer priced combinations to ensure a similar return no matter what the result, but that is a topic for another article.

What about a race to show where it’s advisable that you don’t take a Quinella (or any exotic)?

Example 3:            15^th May Randwick Race 5 - 1400m  Mares R1 Hcp 

The Pace Advantage ratings provided to subscribers for this race were: 

In this race Chasseresse had a market price clearly more than my rated price but was not a value horse for exotic betting. Why? Because it was top pick in the ratings and also the top pick (favourite) in the market.  Even though the prices are quite different, there is still no meaningful difference in my opinion against the market.

From my own betting perspective I look for at least one position difference in market rank, preferably two or more before even considering a bet. As Chasseresse was the top pick in both the ratings and the betting market I didn’t see any exotic value (win betting is a different story).

The result for this race was: 

Although I would have collected the Quinella if I used Chasseresse as my rover, it was still a situation offering no real value so I am happy to leave these races alone.

The Quinella paid $17.10 for $1 but would have cost $5 to play for each $1 unit. The return was only $3.42 per $1 invested and that was with a double figured horse winning the race.

It’s best to pass these races and wait for better value opportunities, which on this day happened to present itself 10 minutes later in the next race at the Gold Coast.

Example 4:            15^th May Gold Coast Race 5 - 1400m  3YO  SW

The Pace Advantage ratings for the race were: 

In this race Drunken Joker stood out as an obvious value horse. He was rated a clear 2^nd pick but was much longer than that in the market.

The Quinella Bet

Taking Drunken Joker as a rover with the five other rated horses 20 times required an outlay of only $100.

The result for this race was: 

Drunken Joker did his job as a value horse for the second time in two weeks by finishing 2^nd with another rated runner Kings Chapel running 1^st. The Quinella paid $60.60 and the collect for 20 times on an outlay of $100 was $1,212.

Can you see the difference with this race compared to the race before at Randwick? Here we had a clear value horse in Drunken Joker and the return was a worthwhile $12.12 for each dollar invested. Keep in mind that was with the well backed 2^nd favourite winning the race. These are the type of returns you can generate by focusing on value runners, even if fancied runners still win the race.

Some Final Thoughts…

Always remember that the key to successful exotic betting is identifying value runners (that you have confidence in) and working your bets around them. Eliminate races where there are no real value horses and combinations that don’t include your value horse in some way. They are wasteful and bad news for your bankroll.

It doesn’t really matter what method you use to do your assessment, as long as you have enough confidence in its ability to identify value runners amongst your top 2 or 3 chances. Also remember that you don’t necessarily need a horse to be double figures to have a value situation. The heart of value is some sort of meaningful discrepancy between your opinion on the race and the markets opinion. Obviously the greater the difference the better, but either way, if you can get your value horse to run 1^st or 2^nd then you will pick up some very nice collects.

Of course it won’t always work as perfectly as these examples show. As mentioned in the beginning, it’s possible to go 20 or more races betting in this fashion without a collect and this is something you need to be prepared for when embarking on an exotics strategy. However by adopting a sensible value based strategy with Quinellas, your collects will be regular enough to protect your bank and more importantly large enough to keep you well in front.

Remember, always punt smart!

Daniel O'Sullivan
The Form-Pro