Early Speed & Position Guides

The Pace Advantage assessment now includes an Early Speed & Position Guide for each race (see example below.)

The Early Speed & Position Guide provides a visual indication of each horse’s early speed ability and when taken in the context of today’s race, the approximate number of lengths that speed ability may see them settle from the leader.

It is not intended to be an absolute prediction of settling positions (i.e. which horses will be on the fence, 2 wide, 3 wide etc.) When there are a group of horses with the same characteristics then predicting jockey tactics and what will actually happen after the barriers open is nothing more than speculation and can create more problems than it solves.  .

I prefer to view the race in the context of each horses basic speed characteristics and be aware for example if there are five runners that all have the speed to race handy to the lead. Obviously all of them cannot race handy once the gates open, but being aware of the likely scenario is important from an analysis and betting perspective. The Early Speed & Position Guide will reflect scenarios where there are a number of horses with the same style / speed characteristics.

For example, the guide below does not suggest that Solo Flyer and Prima Nova will race 3 wide at the back of the field. It highlights that there are a number of backmarkers engaged that typically settle 6 lengths or more off the lead. Being aware of this can provide a clue that those up on the pace may get an easy run and be advantaged.

The Importance Of Position

A key factor in the success of the Pace Advantage philosophy is the importance placed on a horses ability to race in a forward position. These horses have a distinct natural advantage over those that settle midfield or worse and not only win more races, but also provide superior betting returns.

Some Statistics From The Pace Advantage Ratings:

• Horses marked "off pace" and closer to the lead have won 72% of races and dutch betting all of them irrespective of other factors has returned just a 4% loss (based on 1,094 PA Rated races where running styles have been recorded.)

• Horses marked midfield or worse have won just 28% of races and dutch betting all of them irrespective of other factors has returned a 19% loss (based on 1,094 PA Rated races where running styles have been recorded.)

• Top rated horses marked "off pace" and closer to the lead have returned a 31.5% strike rate and 5.2% profit, while those marked "midfield" or worse have returned a 29% strike rate and 12% loss.

• SP Favourites marked "off pace" and closer have returned a 37% strike rate and 7% profit, while favourites marked "midfield" or worse have returned a 28% strike rate and 9% loss. 

There's no doubt about the importance of early speed and in-running position. Irrespective of all other factors, horses that can race forward have a better chance of winning and make for good betting propositions, while those that tend to race back in the field have less chance of winning and make for risky betting propositions. The Early Speed & Position Guides provide a valuable tool to incorporate this important factor into your own betting decisions. It's always worth thinking twice before you commit to backing a horse marked as "midfield" or worse. The statistics highlight that they are much more difficult to profit from.

Good punting.

Daniel