Pace Advantage Ratings -  Betting Profiles

Saturday punters will now find the Pace Advantage Ratings even more valuable, with an extra dimension added to the analysis of winning chances. By considering the "betting profile" of a horse, profitable decision making becomes much easier.

The Concept

The concept of "betting profiles" and their importance is one many professional punters are familiar with, but the average punter often overlooks. A horse's profile is made up of key characteristics that historical analysis suggests are, on average, incorrectly valued by the market. Some characteristics are often overvalued, while others are undervalued.

These characteristics fall into one of the following groups:

• Form angles

• Running style and race pace

• Jockey

• Speed ability

• Market price / ranking

Horses with a poor profile have one or more characteristics that are historically overvalued by the market. This makes it virtually impossible to profit from them in the long run. On the other hand, horses with a favourable profile have one or more characteristics that are historically undervalued by the market and the likelihood of profiting from becomes greater.

Commented runners in the Pace Advantage analysis are now separated into the following profile groups:

1. Profiles Favourably

2. Others (neutral)

3. Profiles Poorly

Example

Following is an example of this new feature in practice in the Listed Aurie Star Handicap run last week at Moonee Valley.

3:35 11Aug07 Moonee Valley Race 6 1200m   LR HCP Slow $151000

No Horse               AS Trainer      Jockey   BP Hcap  All Rate  R  GP%  Odds

 7 Monet Rules         5G L J Corstens PMertens  8 53.0      105.8 1 35.5  15/8 1st @ $3.90

 5 Orange County       5G B Mayfield-S MRodd     1 53.5      105.5 2 32.1   9/4

 1 El Segundo          6G C W Little   DOliver   2 62.5      103.3 3 16.2   5/1

 3 Casual Pass         7G M Ellerton   ChrisSym  4 60.0      99.4  4  4.5  20/1

 8 Any Suggestion      6H Paul Richard CNewitt   6 53.0      98.9  5  3.9  25/1

10 Temple Hills        6G P Moody      SRKing    3 53.0      98.3  6  3.2  33/1

11 Danever             4H D Hayes      CraigWil  9 53.0      97.6  7  2.6  40/1

 6 Judusk              8G C A Conron   DGauci   10 53.0      95.4  8  1.3  80/1

 4 Annenkov            6H P Moody      LNolen    5 53.5      95.3  9  1.2  80/1

 2 Blutigeroo          6H C W Little   DBrereto  7 60.0      93.7 10  0.7 140/1

On average, regardless of the market price, horses with the characteristics of El Segundo produce a significant betting loss.

Whether he turns out to be an overlay against rated prices is irrelevant. His profile shows that whatever the market prices him at, you will lose money in the long run. This is a key point to understand. Many punters lose large amounts of money each year backing perceived overlays that have a poor betting profile. They would be better off backing perceived underlays that have a favourable betting profile.

In this race Monet Rules displayed quite a few attributes that make up a positive profile including form angles, speed ability and pace / running style. These types of horses are good betting propositions, even if they are a slight underlay against the assessed price. As it happens in this instance, Monet Rules was excellent value compared to the $2.90 assessed price. Always remember that rated prices are only ever a guide, the betting profile of a horse is of much more importance.

Ratings and overlay purists might ridicule such a philosophy, but it's hard to argue with statistical evidence on those variables incorrectly valued by the market. One of the most valuable pieces of advice I can give you is that regardless of assessed prices and overlays, you will go broke backing horses with a poor betting profile!

Applying Profiles To Your Betting

Regardless of how you do your analysis or make decisions, it's important to consider the profile of a horse before betting. One important key to winning lies in avoiding horses with a poor profile and focusing on those with a favourable or at worst, neutral profile in the right circumstances. Including this crucial factor is what makes the Pace Advantage Ratings even more unique in their value.  

Remember that a favourable profile doesn't make the horse a "good thing." You must still be mindful of the implied strike rate contained in the price i.e. a horse with a favourable profile priced at $5.00 in the market isn't going to win 35%-40% of the time, it might win 23% of the time. On the other hand, a horse with a poor profile priced at $3.00 in the market will still win around 27% of the time. The difference between the two of them in profit however is staggering and that's what the concept of profiles is all about!