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Pace Advantage Analysis - Caulfield Cup Day
The 2005 Caulfield Cup
presented us with a classic example of why there is more to racing than
just a horse's ratings and accordingly, why Pace Advantage is acclaimed as
one of the best professional race services in Australia.
The Pace Advantage market for the Caulfield
Cup is reproduced below:
4:05
15Oct05 Caulfield Race 8 2400m Gp1 HCP Good $2515000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
9 Railings 4G J R Hawkes GJChilds 52.0 9 MF
102.6 1 11/2
1st @ $8.50
5 Plastered 4G L Smith PHarvey 54.0 13 MF
102.2 2 13/2
16 El Segundo 4G C W Little DGauci 49.5 3 MF
101.7 3 8/1
7 Sir Dex 5G G D Hickman ZPurton 53.0 1 HM
101.0 4 10/1
18 Leica Falcon 4G R A Freyer CWilliam 48.0 10 MB
100.7 5 11/1
13
Portland
Singa 6M N G Mcburney LVCassid 51.5 4 MF 100.5 6 12/1
14 Vouvray 5M P Moody SSeamer 51.5 11 MB
100.3 7 14/1
1 Mummify 6G D L Freedman DNikolic 57.0 17 HL
100.0 8 15/1
11 Dizelle 4M J R Hawkes DBeadman 51.5 18 B
99.5 9 16/1
15 Wild Iris 5M G H Walter KO'Hara 51.5 16 B
99.0 10 20/1
10 Demerger 5M D O'Brien DDunn 51.5 8 MB
98.0 11 33/1
19
Lachlan River 4G J P
Morrisey SRKing 51.5 14 MB 98.0 12 33/1
4 Eye Popper 6H I
Shimizu SFujita 54.0 7 HM 96.0 13 50/1
6 Carte Diamond 5H B Ellison WMarwing 53.0 5 HM
96.0 14 50/1
2 Razkalla 8G S B Suroor KMcEvoy 55.0 15 HL
95.5 15 66/1
20 Natural Blitz 6H D C
Harrison Dummy 53.0 6 MB
94.0 16 125/1
12 Hollow Bullet 4M J McArdle VDuric 51.5 12 MF
93.0 17 150/1
17 Irish Darling 4M A J Vasil DMoor 49.5 2 B
90.0 18 500/1
Class & Weight handicappers along with
Tipsters across the country were declaring El Segundo as clearly the one
to beat, some even saying he was the best "good thing" seen in a top race
for years. After all, he had won the Group 1 Yalumba stakes at Caulfield
last start by 2 lengths carrying 57kg's and was dropping to 49.5 kg's for
the Cup. Further more, he would start from an ideal barrier 3
where the other top chances in the race were drawn wide.
However there is far more to the outcome of
a race than just a horse's ratings. Many other factors come into play and
this is where Pace Advantage stands out from the crowd. Three key elements
of the Pace Advantage philosophy are:
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The importance of overall speed - fast
horses win races!
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The significance of pace and type of run a
horse has - what happened in prior starts and what is expected to happen
today?
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The role that jockeys play in the outcome of
a race.
While the facts and figures supported El
Segundo's claim to the race, these three critical factors highlighted that
he should be considered a genuine risk and poor value.
The Pace Advantage commentary said:
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EL SEGUNDO: On ratings and his weight drop he’s the obvious choice
for this race and he could come out and bet them easily. However I have a
few concerns that look to make him a risk. He’s never raced over 2400m
before and his last two impressive wins have come in moderately run races
where he has saved every bit of ground on the rails and been able to sit
and sprint away from them. The extra 400m today with a solid pace all the
way is an entirely different challenge. It’s known that many of the other
runners will appreciate those conditions but we’ve yet to see how he
handles it.
He’s also drawn inside and while that will help him conserve energy in the
run, there is a risk that he could find himself boxed up on the inside,
unable to get clear running when needed. It’s also worth noting that
jockey D Gauci has a poor overall riding record relative to the average
and his long term strike rate on good chances (<$10 in betting) that come
from off the pace at the turn (6th or worse) is only 7.0% (900+
rides) or 13% if the horse was favourite (100+ rides). If the things go
his way, El Segundo certainly has the ability and weight advantage to win,
but all things considered he looks to be well under the odds and some
risk.
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It was also the same three Pace Advantage
factors that identified Railings as the horse to beat:
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RAILINGS: Ran on strongly from a mile back to win the Metropolitan
last start in very fast time and most impressively was still strong at the
end. From a middle draw I suspect he can settle in a midfield position and
be able to peel wide with clear running at the right time, which is
vitally important. He’s in peak form, can run fast time over the trip,
should get the right run and has a Group 1 jockey on-board. They’re good
credentials for this race. |
As it turned out the Pace Advantage concerns
about El Segundo in this race were right on the mark. He was passively
ridden by jockey Darren Gauci and continued to drift back on the fence until he was
well back at the
800m mark, with nowhere to go and needing a mountain of luck. He weaved a
checkered passage between runners in the straight, but was left with far
too big a task and never looked a winning chance. In saying that, he also
wasn't as strong over the final stages of the 2400m as the proven stayers
Railings and Leica Falcon, so the concern about being untried over the trip
was also valid.
Jockey Greg Childs (zero GTX Jockey Penalty)
gave Railings an ideal run around midfield and most importantly he was
able to get into the clear and start moving forward at the right time.
That ride and Railings proven strength over the 2400m were critical
factors that led to his victory.
It's worth keeping the example of this years
Caulfield Cup in mind when doing your own form analysis. Adopt the Pace
Advantage philosophy that 'there is more to a race than just ratings' and
look beyond the obvious at factors such as pace, the likely in-run
position of the horse and the record of the jockey riding. You won't
always find the winner, but you will find plenty of "Railings" type horses
and your betting bank will be much healthier for it.
The Complete Pace Advantage Analysis -
Caulfield Cup Day
It wasn't just in the Caulfield Cup that the
quality of the Pace Advantage assessment was evident. The complete
analysis for each race at Caulfield is included below:
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11:25 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 1 1400m 3YO F HCP Good $75000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
2 Millie Rose 3F D L Freedman NRyan 54.5 1 HL
88.5 1 5/2
6 Funlove 3F Ms N Cowell NJolly 53.5 3 HL
87.5 2 4/1
1st @ $10.00
7 Come Fly With Me 3F Ms B E Marsh GJChilds 53.5 2 HL
87.0 3 9/2
5 Sadlers Brigg 3F S B Laming MJCahill 54.0 7 L
86.0 4 7/1
1 Crevette 3F D Hayes CWilliam 58.0 5 MF
85.0 5 10/1
4 Strata Title 3F D O'Brien SRKing 54.5 4 HM
84.0 6 15/1
3 Stormy Miss 3F D L Freedman LVCassid 54.5 6 B
83.9 7 15/1
PACE RUNNERS:
5,2,6
PACE SHAPE:
AVG / AVG – No particular style advantaged
COMMENT: Orderly race.
*
MILLIE ROSE: Didn’t beat much last start but she was hardly
pressured by the jockey and could have won by much further. Ratings
suggest she will be hard to beat and from barrier 1 she gets an
ideal run up near the lead.
*
FUNLOVE: Impressive
Brisbane
winner last start and the form / ratings out of the race have been
good.
*
COME FLY WIH ME: Ran well behind Reewaya last start and gave the
impression 1400m would suit. This is a big drop in class.
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12:05 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 2 1400m 3YO C&G LR HCP Good $100000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
6 Roubechon 3G R
Douglas NRyan 53.0 3 HM 92.0 1 5/2 *BET
1st @ $6.00
3 Alike 3G J R Hawkes DBeadman 54.5 4 L
90.7 2 9/2
5 Letter Of Intent 3G G Portelli SSeamer 53.0 7 HM
89.0 3 9/1
10 Pirate Island 3G L Kennewell DDunn 53.0 11 MF
88.5 4 10/1
2 The Boot 3C D L Freedman NRawille 56.5 5 L
88.2 5 11/1
11 Tirdlettar 3C D Hayes CWilliam 53.0 1 HM
88.0 6 12/1
8 Airstream 3G
N Blackiston KMcEvoy 53.0 6 HL 87.0 7 16/1
4 Innovation 3C D Hayes JDidham 53.0 13 MB
85.0 8 33/1
7 Creswina 3C C McDonald DNikolic 53.0 2 HM
85.0 9 33/1
9 Candoo Kid 3G Ms W Kelly VDuric 53.0 12 MB
85.0 10 33/1
14 Monet Rules 3C K Corstens DGauci 53.0 8 HL
84.0 11 50/1
13 Kings Beauty 3G D A Racovoli LNolen 53.0 9 MB
83.0 12 66/1
12 Fusaichi San 3C F W Mitchell SRKing 53.0 10 HM
82.0 13 100/1
PACE RUNNERS:
2,3,8
PACE SHAPE:
AVG / AVG – No particular style advantaged
COMMENT: Standout race.
*
ROUBECHON: Won well over this distance last start and was
particularly strong over the L100m as he drew away from those
chasing. The 2nd horse (beaten 2.8L) was a close 2nd
on Wednesday confirming the rating. He looks a promising horse and
from a good draw he should get an ideal run behind the genuine pace.
This race lacks depth and early markets have him at a good value
price. With that in mind, I’m happy to bet.
*
ALIKE: Was heavily backed last start and had every possible chance
leading on a slow pace, but failed to run on in the straight. He has
the ratings to win but with that questionable last start effort I’m
happy to bet against him.
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12:40 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 3 1400m Gp3 HCP Good $125000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
6 Volitant 4H M Hibbs DGauci 52.5 3 HL
100.0 1 9/4 *BET
1st @ $5.00
3 Foreplay 4H M Ellerton NRyan 55.5 4 MB
99.0 2 7/2
5 Our Highlander 4G Ms G Waterho LVCassid 54.5 1 HL
98.0 3 5/1
2 Sam Sung A Song 5G G Ryan KMcEvoy 56.0 6 B
97.2 4 7/1
7 Son Of Dane 4H Ms N Cowell NJolly 52.5 7 HL
95.7 5 12/1
1 Yell 6G J R Hawkes DNikolic 58.5 2 HM
95.0 6 16/1
9 Larson 4H C F Hyland LNolen 52.5 8 HL
93.0 7 33/1
8 Shadow 6G C J Davies CWilliam 52.5 5 HM
91.5 8 50/1
PACE RUNNERS:
6,7
PACE SHAPE:
A’AVG / B’AVG – Those off the pace should get their chance to run
on.
COMMENT: Standout race.
*
VOLITANT: Had the blinkers on last Saturday and ran unbelievably
fast time leading all the way to win by 3.8 lengths. There has to be
a query if he can repeat that performance today, but he should lead
again, it’s over the same track & distance and the next 2 dangers in
current fixed odds markets usually get well back in the field. Under
that scenario and given he is $5 or better in current markets, I’m
happy to gamble on her.
*
FOREPLAY: Last run was only average but gets down in the weights
here, has the blinkers off and races well at this track. He has the
ability to beat them easily but as a backmarker and the likely
favourite I’m happy to take him on.
*
OUR HIGHLANDER: Freshened for this but at his best certainly the
ratings to be very competitive. He’ll be up near the pace all the
way which is a natural advantage.
*
SAM SUNG A SONG: Got too far back last start but his final 200m was
only average. The 1400m suits and on his best ratings he can win,
but he does get a long way back and after bleeding last preparation,
I just wonder if he’s going as well this time in.
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1:20 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 4 2000m 3YO F HCP Good $75000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
1 Astronomia 3F Ms G Waterho DBeadman 57.0 12 HM
93.0 1 6/4 *BET
1st @ $3.20 TF
4 Holly Go Lightly 3F D Hayes DDunn 54.5 6 HM
89.5 2 7/1
6 Satin Choice 3F J F Moloney KMcEvoy 54.0 1 MB
89.5 3 7/1
2 Fullazz 3F D L Freedman NRyan 56.5 7 HM
89.3 4 15/2
3 Flora Danica 3F K Lees SSeamer 54.5 14 MB
88.5 5 10/1
8 Desert Heiress 3F A Payne MichelPa 54.0 10 HL
85.0 6 33/1
7 Allow 3F C E Conners CWilliam 54.0 15 B
84.5 7 40/1
5 Test Zone 3F J G Symons JDidham 54.0 5 MB
84.0 8 50/1
13 Barefoot Ballerina 3F P T Hyland ZPurton 54.0 9 HM
84.0 9 50/1
9 Pink Princess 3F R W Smerdon LCurrie 54.0 13 MB
83.0 10 66/1
10 River Tribe 3F M Ellerton SBaster 54.0 3 HL
83.0 11 66/1
11 Lacey Underall 3F D O'Sullivan DNikolic 54.0 11 MB
81.5 12 100/1
12 Video Star 3F D R Brideoak MZahra 54.0 8 MF
81.5 13 100/1
14 Eight Lives 3F D R Lawson SRKing 54.0 4 MF
79.0 14 250/1
16 Phoebe Bojangles 3F D M Noonan MPumpa 54.0 2 MB
79.0 15 250/1
PACE RUNNERS:
8,10 (1,4,2 might also go forward)
PACE SHAPE:
AVG / AVG – No particular style advantaged
COMMENT: Standout race.
*
ASTRONOMIA: Improving filly that finished off very strongly last
start over 1600m in the G1 Flight Stakes behind Fashions Afield. Her
rating from that run puts her clearly on top of this field and
Mnemosyne has since come out of that race to win the Thousand
Guineas on Wednesday. The step up to 2000m looks like it will suit
her even better and with Beadman riding I’m happy to bet.
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2:00 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 5 2000m 3YO Gp3 SWP Good $151000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
1 Pendragon 3C J B Cummings GJChilds 56.5 5 MB
95.5 1 6/4
1st @ $2.90
3 Headturner 3G J R Hawkes DBeadman 54.0 7 MF
95.0 2 2/1
4 Vision And Power 3C R W Smerdon NRyan 54.0 2 MB
91.5 3 8/1
2 Replicator 3C A J Cummings SRKing 56.5 9 L
91.0 4 10/1
5 Point Made 3G B Mayfield-S DDunn 54.0 1 HM
87.5 5 33/1
7 Bee Three 3G C J Davies DGauci 54.0 3 HM
84.5 6 100/1
8 Mister Pedantic 3G K Corstens SBaster 54.0 4 B
84.0 7 100/1
6 Lago Buoy 3C R J Besanko DTaggart 54.0 8 MB
83.0 8 150/1
9 Pegachi 3G R G Hore-Lac MZahra 54.0 6 MB
82.0 9 200/1
PACE RUNNERS:
2
PACE SHAPE:
B’AVG / A’AVG – Lead / Handy runners advantaged.
COMMENT: Orderly race.
*
PENDRAGON: Did a big job to make up so much ground against a slow
pace bias in the Champion Stakes last start. He has to contend with
a similar pace here but has the best overall form and ratings in the
race and looks the one to beat.
*
HEADTURNER: Has plenty of promise and won easily last start over
1800m. He also tends to settle back which is some risk under the
expected conditions, but the 3.5kg weight drop and Beadman riding is
a big plus. He looks a strong chance.
*
VISION AND POWER: Headturner went straight past him in run home last
start but he was still running on solidly at the finish and gives
the impression the extra trip will suit. The blinkers go on for the
first time. He’s not without a hope.
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2:40 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 6 2000m Gp3 HCP Good $100000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
4 Activation 4G G A Rogerson DNikolic 55.5 8 HL
101.5 1 6/4 *BET
1st @ $2.00 TF
6 Studebaker 6G J R Hawkes DBeadman 55.5 7 MF
97.8 2 15/2
3 Shes Justa Tad 4M R Liefting SBaster 56.5 4 MB
97.5 3 9/1
10 Uprize 5M D L Freedman KMcEvoy 52.5 6 MB
97.5 4 9/1
2 Roman Arch 7G R E Laing GJChilds 58.0 9 HM
97.0 5 10/1
7 Frightening 6H J B Cummings LCurrie 55.0 2 MB
94.8 6 20/1
9 Bazelle 6M P Jenkins Dummy 53.5 11 MF
94.8 7 20/1
14
Douro Valley 4G P
Moody LNolen 52.0 5 B 94.8 8 20/1
12 Timbourina 5M A
E Wildman DGauci 52.0 12 B 92.5 9 50/1
13 Irish Crusader 7G B Mayfield-S DDunn 52.0 13 MB
92.0 10 50/1
8
Moscow Ballet 5H D Hayes CWilliam 55.0 14 MB 91.5
11 66/1
15 Thousand Veils 5M J T Conlan MZahra 52.0 3 MF
90.0 12 125/1
5 Charnwood Green 6G C J Wood NRawille 55.5 1 B
89.0 13 150/1
11 Zacielo 6G P Moody SSeamer 52.5 10 MF
86.0 14 500/1
PACE RUNNERS:
4
PACE SHAPE:
B’AVG / A’AVG – Lead / Handy runners advantaged.
COMMENT: Standout race.
*
ACTIVATION: Showed an outstanding turn of foot to sprint away for an
easy win last start and looks ideally suited by the expected lack of
pace here. His record on firm tracks is excellent and he showed last
preparation when he beat Eremein that he has no problem handling
this distance. With the best ratings in the field and a strong
advantage racing up near the lead in a slowly run race, he has all
the qualities of an excellent betting proposition.
*
STUDEBAKER: Better suited back to handicap conditions today and on
his first two runs this preparation has a competitive chance.
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3:20 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 7 1100m Gp2 HCP Good $251000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
6 Cocinero 4G R D
Griffith LCurrie 53.0 7 HM 100.0 1 5/1
9 Sassbee 5G D R Jolly DDunn 53.0 4 MB
98.8 2 8/1
14 Danerich 3C R E Laing CWilliam 52.0 3 L
98.2 3 10/1
10 King Rex 5G D L Freedman MZahra 52.5 9 HM
98.0 4 11/1
11 Our Sweet Moss 4M G Ryan KMcEvoy 52.0 14 HM
97.5 5 12/1
8 Mustard 8G J C McNair LVCassid 53.0 11 MB
97.4 6 14/1
2 Beautiful Gem 5M D L Freedman SSeamer 54.0 13 HM
97.3 7 14/1
5 Ballet Society 4M P T Hyland ZPurton 53.0 6 HL
97.0 8 15/1
7 Dance The Waves 5G G M Begg SRKing 53.0 1 HM
97.0 9 15/1
15 Jet Spur 3C J O'Shea SBaster 52.0 10 MF
97.0 10 15/1
1st @ $9.00
1 St Basil 8G S B Laming MJCahill 58.0 2 B
96.2 11 20/1
3 Raid The Royals 5G J W Mason NRyan 54.0 12 B
96.0 12 20/1
12 Gee I Jane 5M
N Couchman GJChilds 52.0 15 MF 95.3 13 25/1
4 Honalee 4H M A Kavanagh DNikolic 53.5 8 HM
94.5 14 40/1
13 Emlozza 4M A
W Noonan LNolen 52.0 5 MF 92.0 15 80/1
PACE RUNNERS:
14,4,5
PACE SHAPE:
A’AVG / B’AVG – Those off the pace look to get conditions to make
ground but over 1100m it’s still an advantage to be handy to the
lead.
COMMENT: Contentious race with a large number of winning chances closely matched.
*
COCINERO: Only beaten 3L in a very fast race behind
Falkirk
last start and drops 5kg’s coming into this. He drawn to race just
off the leaders and the genuine pace up front should suit.
*
SASSBEE: Smart type with some good ratings last preparation
including a big win 1st up over 1000m at
Cheltenham.
The barrier draw will assist him and blinkers on for the first time
should ensure he’s switched on to perform.
*
KING REX: First up for the Freedman stable coming from a low profile
country trainer who did a great job with him. With no weight on his
back he has the ability to be competitive at this level and who
knows how much extra the Freedman polish could bring out in him? It
wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a big race.
It’s an impossible race to confidently predict the winner,
definitely no bet.
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4:05 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 8 2400m Gp1 HCP Good $2515000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
9 Railings 4G J R Hawkes GJChilds 52.0 9 MF
102.6 1 11/2
1st @ $8.50
5 Plastered 4G L Smith PHarvey 54.0 13 MF
102.2 2 13/2
16 El Segundo 4G C W Little DGauci 49.5 3 MF
101.7 3 8/1
7 Sir Dex 5G G D Hickman ZPurton 53.0 1 HM
101.0 4 10/1
18 Leica Falcon 4G R A Freyer CWilliam 48.0 10 MB
100.7 5 11/1
13
Portland
Singa 6M N G Mcburney LVCassid 51.5 4 MF 100.5 6 12/1
14 Vouvray 5M P Moody SSeamer 51.5 11 MB
100.3 7 14/1
1 Mummify 6G D L Freedman DNikolic 57.0 17 HL
100.0 8 15/1
11 Dizelle 4M J R Hawkes DBeadman 51.5 18 B
99.5 9 16/1
15 Wild Iris 5M G H Walter KO'Hara 51.5 16 B
99.0 10 20/1
10 Demerger 5M D O'Brien DDunn 51.5 8 MB
98.0 11 33/1
19
Lachlan River 4G J P
Morrisey SRKing 51.5 14 MB 98.0 12 33/1
4 Eye Popper 6H I
Shimizu SFujita 54.0 7 HM 96.0 13 50/1
6 Carte Diamond 5H B Ellison WMarwing 53.0 5 HM
96.0 14 50/1
2 Razkalla 8G S B Suroor KMcEvoy 55.0 15 HL
95.5 15 66/1
20 Natural Blitz 6H D C
Harrison Dummy 53.0 6 MB
94.0 16 125/1
12 Hollow Bullet 4M J McArdle VDuric 51.5 12 MF
93.0 17 150/1
17 Irish Darling 4M A J Vasil DMoor 49.5 2 B
90.0 18 500/1
PACE RUNNERS:
1,2,7 – Mummify looks likely to cross from out wide similar to the
tactics adopted when he won this race in 2003. Razkalla often races
close to the lead and could follow him across. From the good draw I
expect Sir Dex to work forward early and the take a sit when the
eventual leaders cross. It’s usually a mad scamper to the first turn
and those drawn inside are always at the risk of getting buffeted
and checked back as runners from the outside attempt to work into a
good position.
PACE SHAPE:
A’AVG / AVG – Luck in running always plays a big role but horses
from back in the field should be able to make ground if good enough!
COMMENT: Contentious race
with a large number of chances and luck in running to play a big
role.
*
RAILINGS: Ran on strongly from a mile back to win the Metropolitan
last start in very fast time and most impressively was still strong
at the end. From a middle draw I suspect he can settle in a midfield
position and be able to peel wide with clear running at the right
time, which is vitally important. He’s in peak form, can run fast
time over the trip, should get the right run and has a Group 1
jockey on-board. They’re good credentials for this race.
*
PLASTERED: Both runs this time in have been very good and he looks
set to peak over an ideal 2400m today. He can run time and will no
doubt be strong at the end… just needs luck to get the right run
from his barrier.
*
EL SEGUNDO: On ratings and his weight drop he’s the obvious choice
for this race and he could come out and bet them easily. However I
have a few concerns that look to make him a risk. He’s never raced
over 2400m before and his last two impressive wins have come in
moderately run races where he has saved every bit of ground on the
rails and been able to sit and sprint away from them. The extra 400m
today with a solid pace all the way is an entirely different
challenge. It’s known that many of the other runners will appreciate
those conditions but we’ve yet to see how he handles it. He’s also
drawn inside and while that will help him conserve energy in the
run, there is a risk that he could find himself boxed up on the
inside, unable to get clear running when needed. It’s also worth
noting that jockey D Gauci has a poor overall riding record relative
to the average and his long term strike rate on good chances (<$10
in betting) that come from off the pace at the turn (6th
or worse) is only 7.0% (900+ rides) or 13% if the horse was
favourite (100+ rides). If the things go his way, El Segundo
certainly has the ability and weight advantage to win easily, but
all things considered, he looks to be well under the odds and some
risk.
*
SIR DEX: He’s as honest as they come and has been progressing well
towards this target race with consistently good ratings. He’ll race
up near the pace all the way and with no weight on his back
certainly has a rough chance.
*
LEICA FALCON: Has created a big impression storming through the
grades with easy wins and does look to be a dead set stayer. He
hasn’t beaten anything of quality yet and this is a significant jump
in class, which turns me off him a little, but he is still on the
improve and it wouldn’t surprise to see him measure up.
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4:50 15Oct05 Caulfield Race 9 1400m Mares Gp2 SWP Good $176000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
15 One In A Million 4M J O'Shea ZPurton 53.0 9 HL
97.0 1 4/1
12 Candy Vale 4M P G Carey SRKing 57.0 3 HM
96.5 2 5/1
10 Lyrical Bid 5M B Mayfield-S NRyan 57.0 11 MB
95.0 3 9/1
13 Storm Alert 4M D L Freedman DNikolic 55.5 2 MF
94.5 4 11/1
7 Afraah 4M Ms G Waterho LVCassid 57.0 5 HL
94.2 5 12/1
3 Vitesse Dane 4M K Lees DBeadman 57.0 8 B
93.9 6 14/1
2 Infinite Grace 6M J G Symons SSeamer 57.0 7 MF
93.5 7 15/1
1st @ $17.10
8 Hennessy Waltz 6M G H Walter KMcEvoy 57.0 4 MF
93.5 8 15/1
1 Skewiff 8M D K Weir Dummy 58.5 10 MF
93.0 9 20/1
6 Truly Wicked 4M B Mayfield-S DDunn 57.0 14 HM
92.0 10 25/1
4 Tui Song 5M G A Rogerson DGauci 57.0 6 B
91.5 11 33/1
11 Sarah Michelle 6M J W Mason NRawille 57.0 13 B
90.5 12 40/1
14 Little Chloe 4M D Hayes MPumpa 55.5 1 HM
90.0 13 50/1
16 Lady Lyn 5M J T Gunning VDuric 53.0 12 HM
90.0 14 50/1
PACE RUNNERS:
7,15
PACE SHAPE:
AVG / AVG – No particular style advantaged
COMMENT: Contentious race
with a number of chances rated closely together.
*
ONE IN A MILLION: A very promising Mare, but has disappointed
punters as a short priced favourite in her last two. Her last start
rating behind Wild Queen however was strong and she has the blinkers
added for the first time today, which could finally see her produce
her best. She should go forward to race up near the lead and with
that advantage looks the one to beat.
*
CANDY VALE: Had plenty to offer last start in similar Group 2
company but never got a crack at them and may have gone close to
winning if she had clear running. Her ratings from last preparation
indicate that she is well above average and from an ideal draw here
she has a strong chance.
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5:30 15Oct05 Caulfield Race10 1100m F&M HCP Good $75000
No Horse AS Trainer Jockey Hcap All BP Style
Rate R Price
13 Cool And Composed 4M B Mayfield-S NRyan 53.0 5 HL
95.0 1 9/2
16 Sojustrememberthis 4M M Ellerton LCurrie 53.0 13 HM
94.2 2 13/2
2 Pretty Penny 5M P G Carey SRKing 58.0 9 HM
94.0 3 7/1
1 Covet Thee 7M K Lees DBeadman 58.5 7 L
92.8 4 11/1
5 Talons Shown 4M D L Freedman SSeamer 54.0 6 HM
92.8 5 11/1
3
Paris Zero 4M B Mayfield-S SHyland 57.0 1 HL
92.0 6 14/1
6 Freeroller 6M A
E Wildman LVCassid 53.0 3 MB 91.5 7 16/1
1st @ $11.00
12 Lady Larissa 4M M Ellerton KMcEvoy 53.0 11 HM
91.5 8 16/1
15 Shan Dian 3F D Hayes CWilliam 53.0 2 L
91.1 9 20/1
4 Amber Shimmer 5M J F Moloney MZahra 56.5 15 HL
91.0 10 20/1
9 Ashlyn 4M T Scott GJChilds 53.0 8 MF
90.0 11 25/1
10 Sovereign Miss 5M J B Smith SPrice 53.0 12 HL
89.5 12 33/1
14 Little Doutes 4M D Hayes DDunn 53.0 10 L
89.5 13 33/1
8 Clearly Unique 7M D J Beriman NBeriman 53.0 4 HL
87.0 14 80/1
11 Fuhr Goodness Sake 5M C McDonald DNikolic 53.0 14 HM
87.0 15 80/1
17 Alunasu 4M B
Warren AAustin 53.0 16 MB 84.0 16 200/1
PACE RUNNERS:
1,5,13,14,4
PACE SHAPE:
FAST / SLOW – Off pace runners best suited but in the big filed luck
in running will be important.
COMMENT: Chaos race
with just over 1 length separating the top 8 chances. Any of them
could win.
*
COOL AND COMPOSED: Has solid ratings from last preparation, is drawn
ideally here and comes from an astute stable with a good first up
record. Her trial win prior to this indicates that she should be
close to her top.
*
SOJUSTREMEMBERTHIS: Showed above average ability in 3 runs last
preparation but will need luck from the wide draw.
With so many chances it’s a definite no bet race.
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