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Trainer Insights - Lee Freedman

From humble beginnings in Yass NSW, Lee Freedman has risen to the top of Australia's training ranks to become one of the most successful trainers in history. At the time of writing he has trained an incredible 117 Group 1 winners, 3rd on the all list behind the legendary T.J. Smith (282) and Bart Cummings (246).

With a big team and large number of fancied runners each year, it's certainly worthwhile taking some time to examine how the Freedman statistics stack up. (All figures are from 1/1/04 to 31/12/06 using best of NSW Tote and SP as the dividend.)

All Runners - Sorted By Year

Year	Runners	Wins	W%	POT%	LRO
2004	638	133	20.0%	-4.1%	17
2005	859	194	22.0%	+3.7%	28
2006	923	189	20.0%	-2.9%	19
Total	2,420	516	21.3%	-0.9%	28

A 21.3% strike rate across all runners is an incredible level of achievement. What's even more amazing is that despite his high public profile, backing all Lee Freedman runners (according to their price) has returned just a 0.9% loss in the last 3 years (the overall market average is around -11%.)

All Runners - Sorted By Market (SP) Rank

SP Rank	Runners	Wins	W%	POT%
1	779	323	41.5%	+7.8%
2	435	83	19.1%	-11.8%
3	330	52	15.8%	+3.8%
4+	876	58	6.6%	-23.2%
Total	2,420	516	21.3%	-0.9%

Freedman's record with favourites is outstanding. It seems that despite years of training winners, the market still undervalues his fancied runners.

As is the case with the market in general, those ranked further down the list offer very poor returns as a starting point and are very difficult to profit from.

All Runners - Sorted By Spell Count

Count	Runners	Wins	W%	POT%
First Up	733	142	19.4%	+4.4%
2nd Up	569	130	22.8%	+2.2%
3rd Up	418	106	25.4%	+3.7%
Other	700	138	19.7%	-11.7%
Total	2,420	516	21.3%	-0.9%

There's certainly no worry with backing Freedman runners first up from a spell, or 2nd up for that matter.

All Runners - First Starters

Starts	Runners	Wins	W%	POT%
First Starter	289	55	19.0%	+12.3%
Others	2,131	461	21.6%	-2.5%
Total	2,420	516	21.3%	-0.9%

Freedman's first starters have a strike rate close to his overall average, but have returned a much better than average profit. The market has significantly undervalued these runners.

All Runners - Sorted By Last Start Finish Position

LS Position	Runners	Wins	W%	POT%
1st	494	145	29.4%	+7.0%
2nd	362	108	29.8%	+9.6%
3rd	270	60	22.2%	-8.3%
Other	1,005	148	14.7%	-17.4%
First Starter	289	55	19.0%	+12.3%
Total	2,420	516	21.3%	-0.9%

Those runners coming off a last start win or 2nd placing have an impressive record and on these statistics look to be an excellent group of betting prospects to consider.

Runners <=$10 SP - Sorted By Apprentice Allowance

Claim	Bets	Wins	W%	POT%
0.0	1526	396	26%	1.4%
1.5	52	12	23%	-5.7%
2.0	85	17	20%	-18.3%
3.0	108	22	20%	-17.7%
Total	1,771	449	25.4%	-1.0%

When comparing apprentices against senior riders, it's most relevant to only examine those runners given a genuine chance by the market (i.e. $<=$10). Even after doing that, there is still a notable difference in results when apprentices ride, particularly the 2kg and 3kg claimers.

Conclusions

Whichever way you look at it, Lee Freedman's training statistics are simply outstanding. He has a better than 20% SR across all runners and close enough to break even betting return using just the NSW Tab / SP dividends. His strike rate with favourites is unbeatable and quiet surprisingly they return an excellent profit. His first up runners are very reliable as are those with top last start form. Of most note is the fact that despite his profile in the industry, the market still significantly undervalues his runners. From a punting perspective that is obviously very attractive and based on the above figures the astute punter doesn't have much extra work to do to build a selection strategy that produces a tidy profit.