Does the Jockey really matter?

Do you consider jockeys to be one of the most important factors in your selection process? Are you aware of whom the good and bad riders are amongst our jockey ranks? Do you avoid betting a horse because it has an inferior jockey engaged?

If the answer to these questions is “no”, then chances are you are about to learn how you can immediately improve your betting results.

Jockeys are one of the most important factors in racing. A good jockey quickly positions his / her horse favourably after the start, correctly assesses the pace and stays aware of what is happening around them. They make split second tactical moves to gain ground, avoid foreseeable trouble and move their mount into a better racing position. They have a natural instinct for how much the horse underneath them can give if asked for and they time their finishing run with precision. Along the way they have helped their horse to conserve its energy and when combined with their outstanding balance, strength and fitness, they are able to extract the horse’s very best in the drive to the finish.

No jockey can make a horse give more than it is capable of, but they can certainly impede a horse from achieving its best possible result. A jockey’s indecision, lapses in concentration, poor tacticaI moves or lack of foresight and initiative might not be obvious when watching a race, but these little things all cost a horse precious energy and ground. It could be as little as a nose, to as much as a few lengths. When you consider that most races are won by less than a length, it becomes apparent just how much the skill of a jockey can influence the outcome.

At one time or another all jockeys fall victim to race circumstances or make errors in judgement that impede their horse. At the same time, inferior riders can ride very good races to help a horse win. However like any other group of athletes, some jockeys are consistently much better than others.

Here at TRB we like to keep a close watch on the performance of jockeys and consider them as part of our own betting decisions. Take a look at a sample of our performance statistics for jockeys as of 7th October 2004, restricted to rides that started at $7 or less in betting.

Jockey Performance Figures

Rides <= 6/1 in betting

The figures clearly show that some jockeys are much better than others, whether it be overall or just in the last 6 months.

The strike rate provides an indication of the jockeys winning ability when riding horses considered a good chance in the race, while the profit figures can highlight those jockeys that are regularly under or over-bet by the public. For example, in the last 3 years R. Hinton and D. Oliver have similar winning strike rates, yet Hinton shows a 4% POT while Oliver shows a -15.1% LOT.

In some cases the figures don’t necessarily match the public perception about a jockey. You may be surprised to learn that Damien Oliver has a very poor riding record over the last 6 months. If we look at all of his rides in that time, he has only had 9 winners from 125 rides. That’s a terrible strike rate of just 7.2% and 3 of those wins were on the superstar Alinghi.

While not as well known as the high profile jockeys, young Willie Pearson has shown that when on a horse with a genuine chance of winning, his performance is right up there with the very best.

The jockeys that have a good performance record only do so because they position their rides better, make superior tactical choices, conserve more energy in their horse and get more out of them in the run to the line.

Jockeys with a poor performance record are less capable when it comes to these important skills. Remember that it might not be obvious from watching a race, but these shortcomings often cost their horse precious ground and energy and that can be the difference between winning and losing. If they didn’t lack these skills then their performance record would be as good as the top riders.

If you want to improve your betting results then you should seriously consider the jockey in your decision making process.

Develop the belief that the jockey does play an important role in the outcome of each race and therefore your ability to make a profit. Become disciplined enough to avoid betting on horses that are ridden by poor and / or out of form jockeys.

It’s not about missing every loser and never missing a winner. There will be times that inferior jockeys do win on your fancied horse. In the long run though, they are a losing proposition. It’s about tightening your discipline and waiting for the right opportunities to risk your money, when everything is in your favour. That’s the way you make a long term profit at racing.

The good news is that we've added a new feature to the TRB web site to help you keep track of who the good and bad jockeys are. Every Thursday we will post up to date performance statistics for current jockeys riding in Metropolitan and Provincial areas across the country. On a State by State basis the statistics will show the performance of each jockey from their last 50 and 100 rides (not exceeding 3 years in time) that started less than or equal to 10/1. Click here to go to the Jockey Performance page now.

Remember the betting maxim of the famous “Pittsburgh Phil”:

A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet.

A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet.

A moderate jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet.

Your aim should be to only make good bets and that requires both a good horse and good jockey. Have the discipline to eliminate the ‘moderate bets’ by avoiding poor performing jockeys and your results will improve dramatically.

Good luck in the photo finishes.