In summary, a Jockeys’ Penalty is based on his/her short and long term performance on rides considered a genuine winning chance by the market. It's neither fair nor valid to measure the ability of a jockey on horses that have little chance of winning the race. Even the best jockey cannot overcome a horse's lack of ability or fitness and make it give more than it's capable of on the day.

Another important element to consider is that the standard of jockeys and therefore competition increases as we move from Country to Provincial racing and then onto the Metropolitan area. A jockey with a 20% strike rate in the Country area cannot be considered to be of equal ability to a jockey with a 20% strike rate in the Metropolitan area. For that reason each jockey's performance is measured separately for Metropolitan, Provincial and Country rides and then statistically normalised to produce a Metropolitan equivalent.

All jockeys are ranked on their normalised performance and then rated based on their relative standing. The bottom 33% of jockeys is automatically allocated the highest penalty of 5.0. The remaining jockeys (67% of the total list) are then allocated their penalty on a percentile basis. For example, the top 10% of remaining jockeys are given a penalty of zero, the next 10% receive a penalty of 0.5, the following 10% a penalty of 1.0 and so on.

Below is a shot of the GTX field view screen that shows a sample of the new GTX jockey penalties.

We can see from the column headed JP (Jockey Penalty) that both Darren Beadman and Glenn Boss have a penalty of zero. They are therefore ranked within the top 6.7% of all jockeys in Australia. Len Beasley has a penalty of 1.5, which places him in the 20.2% to 26.8% grouping of all jockeys.  

Updated monthly

Our new Jockey Penalties are reviewed and adjusted within GTX at the beginning of each month and change for each jockey depending on the impact their previous one months results have had on their overall short & long-term performance.

This methodology and the consistency of its application makes the new GTX Jockey Penalties an accurate and reliable way to measure the ability of each jockey. It ignores media hype that creates the misguided the public perception and focuses on the valid facts of racetrack performance!

New Jockey Penalty Performance Statistics

The new GTX Jockey Penalties were first included in meeting files on 9th July 2005 and there have since been 1,806 races run prior to publishing this article (approximately 6 weeks). What insights can we gain from the short history so far?

The following table shows the strike rate and profit of all runners sorted by their relevant Jockey Penalty:

With an average of 11 runners per race, the strike rate of all winners divided by all runners is just over 9%. This table however shows a clear pattern that the lower a horses Jockey Penalty, the higher its success rate.

This is not surprising given our assertion that the ability of the jockey has a significant influence on the outcome of each race and the fact that the most successful jockeys tend to ride the best horses. If the GTX Jockey Penalties were a reliable indicator of jockey ability, we would naturally expect to see this strike rate relationship.

More importantly from a betting perspective though, it would seem that the market might not fully factor in the ability of the jockey into its prices. For example, backing every horse ridden by a jockey with a penalty of 0 or 0.5 has so far returned a loss of just 1% on turnover. On the other hand, jockeys with a penalty of 3.0 or worse have returned a 17% loss. If the market were accurate in factoring in the jockey then we would still see varying strike rates, but the profit / loss figures would be comparable. 

Let's consider some further data that explores the influence of jockeys and the new Jockey Penalties. The following table shows the record of 1,806 favourites since the new Jockey Penalties were introduced:

Favourites by Jockey Penalty

These early figures are quite remarkable. Favourites represent the best winning chance in each race and their record is universally consistent across all facets of racing, in line with this sample, which shows a 30% strike rate and 7% loss. However these statistics show that performance is in fact strongly influenced by the ability of the jockey riding. Those ridden by jockeys with a good record (low penalty) win more and have actually been profitable, while those ridden by jockeys with a poor record (high penalty) win less and are big losing propositions. That's powerful evidence to support our views on not only the importance of jockeys, but also the failure of the market to reflect that in its prices.

From these statistics then we can draw two important conclusions:

1. The new GTX Jockey Penalties are an accurate and reliable indicator of jockey ability.

2. There is potential to exploit the power of the Jockey Penalties for profit.

Let's simplify our view and split the jockey population into three to represent a simple jockey classification of good record, moderate record, and poor record. The following table shows the record of favourites for each jockey group:

Favourites by Jockey Penalty

Good jockeys not only win more often, they make for more profitable betting propositions. It seems the old Pittsburgh Phil maxim of  ‘a good jockey, a good horse, a good bet... A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet’, still holds true today.

GTX Ratings

Moving away from the betting market for a moment, let's review the top rated GTX horse in each race:

GTX Top Raters by Jockey Penalty

Top rated GTX horses ridden by a good jockey (in the top 33%) have produced a 30% strike rate and 11% POT... or $7,100 profit on $100 bets in the last 6 weeks.

Of course there is no guarantee that such a profit record will continue. We cannot predict the future that lies beyond the 1,806 races run so far...but there is certainly a clear and logical pattern that indicates where you need to focus your attention.

Formline (Weight / Class) Ratings

Historically, Formline handicappers have used Jockey Penalties as part of their assessment for upcoming races. The penalty for each jockey is subtracted from the horses base rating and amongst other penalties & bonuses leads to a nett rating and assessed value price.

A quick check of our raw Formline ratings shows that top raters ridden by a jockey with a penalty of 2.0 or less have so far produced a 23% strike rate and 25% profit. Those ridden by other jockeys have returned a 15% strike rate and 15% loss.

With an accurate penalty that highlights the ability of each jockey and the knowledge that the market undervalues their importance, there is undoubtedly a big opportunity to increase your betting profits!   

Increase Your Betting Profits!

Following are some practical thoughts on how you may be able to use our new Jockey Penalties to help increase your betting profits:

• Think long and hard about backing horses ridden by a jockey with a penalty of 4.0 or above. You must overcome a significant market disadvantage to start showing a profit.

• Include the new jockey penalties in your Formline handicapping and price assessment. They can be a powerful tool to distinguish between runners that are otherwise closely rated.

• Favourites ridden by jockeys with a penalty of 2.0 or less have so far shown to be profitable.

• Favourites ridden by jockeys with a penalty of 4.0 or higher have so far returned a loss exceeding 20% and may be considered a significant risk. Betting around these favourites, particularly on good chances ridden by good jockeys can be highly profitable.

• The GTX ratings for each race are complete... as is, so you should not change them by including the Jockey Penalty as a calculation variable. Instead, use the Jockey Penalties as an additional decision making tool to support the GTX assessment. For example:

  • Top rated GTX horses ridden by good jockeys offer an outstanding starting point for profitable selections. So far they have produced a 30% strike rate and 11% profit on turnover.

  • Top rated GTX horses ridden by the best jockeys with a penalty of zero (the top 6.7% of all jockeys) have so far produced a 32.4% strike rate and 19% profit. They are potentially a simple yet highly successful selection system. 

If you have not been considering jockeys in your selection and betting process then the evidence presented here should convince you that you can no longer ignore them. Good jockeys are a significant advantage in racing while jockeys with a poor record are a substantial disadvantage. The GTX Jockey Penalties provide a powerful source of racing intelligence that you can use to accurately distinguish the difference in jockeys’ abilities, and therefore make more profitable betting decisions. As a minimum, avoiding betting on jockeys in the lower group and you will certainly increase both your strike rate and profit!

Footnote: Any reference or categorisation of jockeys as belonging to a good, moderate or poor group is based solely on comparative statistical analysis of winning strike rates from rides considered a genuine winning chance by the market.