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Trainer Insights - John Hawkes
John Hawkes has
been training Group 1 winners for over 30 years and currently
sits fifth on the all time list of trainers with a total of 91
(as at Feb 2007.) Unknown to many he is one of the few horsemen that
actually trained and rode his first race winner (King Of Shadows
1970), back in the days when dual licenses were allowed. From
his beginnings in South Australia, John Hawkes moved on to
become the private trainer for Bob and Jack Ingham and claim no
fewer than eight training premierships. In recent years he has
started to expanded his list of clients to include other high
profile owners. With stables currently in Sydney, Melbourne and
Brisbane, Hawkes has a large number of runners each year, but
what do the stats about about his stable performance from a
punting perspective?
(All figures
are from 1/1/04 to 31/12/06 using best of NSW Tote and SP as the
dividend.)
All Runners
- Sorted By Year
|
Year |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
LRO |
|
2004 |
1997 |
279 |
14% |
-16% |
32 |
|
2005 |
1805 |
274 |
15% |
-15% |
36 |
|
2006 |
1564 |
244 |
16% |
-17% |
45 |
|
Total |
5366 |
797 |
15% |
-16% |
45 |
Some allowance
has to be made for the incredibly large number of runners and
their position in the market (as you will see below), but a
15% strike rate and more importantly 16% loss is well below the
overall market average and a long way off other high profile
trainers like Lee Freedman and Gai Waterhouse.
All Runners
- Sorted By State
|
State |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
NSW |
2718 |
487 |
18% |
-11% |
|
QLD |
1382 |
178 |
13% |
-24% |
|
VIC |
977 |
112 |
11% |
-17% |
|
SA |
289 |
20 |
7% |
-36% |
|
Total |
5366 |
797 |
15% |
-16% |
The NSW record
is far superior to other States (although still only equal to
the overall market average). That may be because the stables
best horses are usually based there, along with John Hawkes himself. The South Australian stable was closed
a couple of years ago and on these figures it's easy to see why. The QLD performance is
significantly below the market average.
All Runners
- First Up
|
Count |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
First Up |
1746 |
222 |
13% |
-22% |
All Runners
- Sorted By Market (SP) Rank
|
SP Rank |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
1 |
1140 |
378 |
33% |
-11% |
|
2 |
874 |
181 |
21% |
-6% |
|
3 |
760 |
89 |
12% |
-28% |
|
4+ |
2592 |
149 |
6% |
-27% |
|
Total |
5366 |
797 |
15% |
-16% |
Like the market
itself, Hawke's best returns come from those runners that are
near the top of the betting. While his returns on favourites are
worse than the market average, the record on 2nd favourites is
better. On the whole though, his performance with well fancied
runners (top two favourites) is still below the market average
(-9% v's -6.5%). The record of other high profiles trainers like
Gai Waterhouse and Lee Freedman is significantly better than the
market average.
Once you get
outside the top two favourites the stable performance really
suffers, but that is not uncommon as the market itself exhibits
the same pattern. Even Lee Freedman has a -23% return on runners
ranked 4th or lower in the market.
The large
number of runners Hawkes has ranked 4th or lower by the market
certainly has a big influence of the overall stable figures and
accounts for why they seem relatively poor. He has 48% of his
total runners ranked 4th or lower by the market, where in
Freedman's case it's only 36%. Hawkes has such a large
number of runners that it's no surprise so many of them are
relative long shots... it would be near
impossible to have that many good horses in the stable.
Top Two Favourites
- Sorted By
State
|
State |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
NSW |
1214 |
361 |
30% |
-7% |
|
QLD |
496 |
119 |
24% |
-18% |
|
VIC |
255 |
68 |
27% |
1% |
|
SA |
49 |
11 |
22% |
-21% |
|
Total |
2014 |
559 |
28% |
-9% |
It's
interesting to note that Victoria leads the way with the best
returns on well fancied runners. Comparing that to the overall
State record suggests that there are a high proportion of Hawkes
runners racing there that are unfancied by the market (which
leads to a poor return.) The NSW performance is about on par
with the market average, while SA and more notably QLD (as that
stable still operates) is about 2.5 times worse than the State
market average.
Top 2
Favourites
- Sorted By Jockey
|
Jockey |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
DBeadman |
529 |
171 |
32% |
-2% |
|
RMQuinn |
280 |
75 |
27% |
-12% |
|
TPannell |
257 |
58 |
23% |
-23% |
|
SGalloway |
199 |
59 |
30% |
-4% |
|
CBrown |
135 |
35 |
26% |
-18% |
|
AWRobinson |
98 |
39 |
40% |
12% |
|
DGauci |
78 |
20 |
26% |
5% |
|
MBeadman |
60 |
16 |
27% |
-17% |
|
PSaunders |
57 |
17 |
30% |
-2% |
|
BShinn |
56 |
12 |
21% |
-12% |
|
RMcMahon |
47 |
11 |
23% |
-24% |
|
Others |
218 |
46 |
21% |
-23% |
|
Total |
2014 |
559 |
28% |
-9% |
The highlighted
jockeys above have returned what we can consider good
performance on top two favourites (compared to the market
average), while the others have returned much worse. The
performance of Todd Pannell and Ric McMahon is consistent with
the poor QLD average for the stable, while Scott Galloway has
returned much better results.
In NSW there is
a clear distinction between the results from Darren Beadman and
Allan Robinson rides compared to others.
Conclusions
On the whole we can say
that Hawkes runners are largely over valued by the market. When assessing
the complete stable record though allowance must be made for the large
number of runners and high proportion that are ranked down the market
order. In saying that, when we look at well fancied runners the
performance is still below average (although not as much) and a long way
behind the top trainers in the game.
What all this suggests is
that it may not be easy to make a punting profit from Hawkes runners, or at
the very least it is more difficult than the market as a whole. A
significant help in that battle could be found in the jockeys that Hawkes
uses. There is a clear pattern that some provide much better returns that
others and that may be worth considering in the mix of factors that lead
to a final betting decision.
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