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Trainer Insights - Gai Waterhouse

 

The daughter of legendary trainer T J Smith, Gai Waterhouse had to endure a long fight with officialdom before finally being granted her trainers licence in January 1992. It took Gai just 10 months before she prepared her first Group 1 winner, Te Akau Nick who won the AJC Metropolitan Stakes. Since then she has gone from strength to strength, preparing more than 50 Group 1 winners and establishing herself as one of the best trainers of the modern era.

 

With more than 1,000 runners per year, primarily racing in NSW, it's well worthwhile for us to take a punter's view of the Gai Waterhouse stable record.

 

All statistics are based on races from 1/1/04 to 16/4/06 (the time of writing this article). Profit figures are based on proportional betting using the best of SP and NSW Tab dividends.

 

 

All Runners - Sorted By Year

 

Year Runners Wins W% POT% LRO
2004       1,050       216 20.6% -2.5%     26
2005       1,041       225 21.6% -2.7%     29
2006         272        53 19.5% -11.9%     23
Total       2,363       494 20.9% -3.7%     29

 

A 20.9% strike rate across so many runners is a top class performance. Even more impressive is that despite her public profile, backing all of Gai's runners returns just a 3.7% loss, almost 3 times better than the overall market average. 

 

 

All Runners - Sorted By Spell Count

 

Spell Count Runners Wins W% POT%
First up         750       171 22.8% 2.7%
2nd Up         624       133 21.3% -2.5%
Others         989       190 19.2% -9.8%
Total       2,363       494 20.9% -3.7%

 

These figures highlight that Gai has an outstanding record with first up runners, no doubt helped by the practice of trialling most of her runners at least 2 trials prior to each preparation.

 

There's always an element of uncertainty when it comes to backing first up runners, but these figures show that you can bet with confidence on Gai Waterhouse first uppers. It's interesting to note Gai's performance is much better amongst first up and 2nd up runners.

 

 

All Runners - Sorted By Starting Price

 

Price Runners Wins W% POT% LRO
$1.10 to $3.00         551       249 45.2% 2.3% 9
$3.10 to $5.00         702       147 20.9% -8.9% 21
$5.10 to $10.00         689        83 12.0% -2.3% 38
$10.10 +         421        15 3.6% -32.1% 105
Total       2,363       494 20.9% -3.7%  

 

Like the market itself, shorter priced runners trained by Gai have the best strike rate and return, not to mention a much lower run of outs (LRO). It's amazing to note that Gai's short priced horses not only have a great strike rate, but have actually returned a profit. Many punters would believe that most of her runners start "under the odds" but nothing could be further from the truth! Despite her reputation, these figures show that the market still undervalues Gai's runners, particularly those at the top of the market. 

 

From a punter's perspective there is little value examining runners longer than $10.00 in the market, so all future figures will only include runners with an SP of $10 or less.

 

 

Runners <=$10 SP - Sorted By State

 

State Runners Wins W% POT%
NSW       1,860       465 25.0% -1.3%
VIC           34          6 17.6% -12.2%
QLD           46          8 17.4% -30.2%
SA            2        -   0.0% -100.0%
Total       1,942       479 24.7% -2.3%

Backing all of Gai's runners <=$10 in NSW would get you close enough to break even and potentially a small profit if you used the top fluctuation service offered by bookmakers. That's a remarkable performance, especially when you consider the large number of runners she has. The few runners Gai has travelled interstate have not maintained the same record, but we should note that the majority of these are black type races, which are obviously much harder to win.

Runners <=$10 SP - Sorted By Area

 

Area Runners Wins W% POT%
Metrpolitan       1,063       271 25.5% 0.9%
Provincial         869       208 23.9% -4.9%
Country           10        -   0.0% -100.0%
Total       1,942       479 24.7% -2.3%

 

Backing every one of Gai's Metropolitan runners starting at $10 or less has actually returned a profit!

 

 

Runners <=$10 SP - Sorted By Career Starts

 

Starts Runners Wins W% POT%
First Starter         234        64 27.4% 3.2%
Others       1,708       415 24.3% -3.1%
Total       1,942       479 24.7% -2.3%

Gai's record with first starters at $10 or less in the market is exceptional. There have been 56 first starters at $2.50 or less, returning a 60.7% strike rate and 21.4% profit.

 

Runners <=$10 SP - Sorted By Most Commonly Used Jockeys

Jockey Runners Wins W% POT%
C Munce         293        76 25.9% -2.5%
R Freeman         268        65 24.3% 0.7%
D Beasley         266        54 20.3% -21.6%
M Newnham         227        52 22.9% -8.0%
L Cassidy         162        30 18.5% -18.7%
L Beasley           87        26 29.9% 15.5%
L Meech           77        18 23.4% -6.3%
D Beadman           74        26 35.1% 11.1%
H Bowman           69        17 24.6% -1.4%
G Boss           46        15 32.6% 22.7%
N Paine           43          5 11.6% -41.9%
Z Purton           40        10 25.0% -19.6%
J Cassidy           36          8 22.2% -2.7%
M Lister           29        10 34.5% 64.7%
J Innes           27          8 29.6% 62.1%
K Fuji           25          9 36.0% 1.5%
J Ford           22        11 50.0% 149.8%
K Ohara           14          4 28.6% 18.0%

The most notable figures here are the well below average performance of D Beasley, L Cassidy and N Paine on Gai Waterhouse runners.

Gai doesn't often use apprentices on her horses, but the figures show that from 83 runners ridden by an apprentice (<=$10 in the market), there has been 28 winners for a 33.7% strike rate and 13.5% profit on turnover. 

 

 

Conclusions

 

Let's wrap up our insight into the Gai Waterhouse stable with some conclusions that can be applied to future form analysis and betting decisions.

  1. The overall strike rate and return from Gai Waterhouse trained runners is outstanding, close to 3 times better than the market average. She is no doubt a punters friend and we can back her runners with confidence.

  2. There's no need to be concerned about backing a Gai Waterhouse runner first up from a spell.

  3. Horses starting at $3.00 or less trained by Gai have returned a 45.2% strike rate and 2.3% profit. These runners could provide the basis of a profitable selection strategy. On the other side of the coin, market percentages say that if these runners are well over the odds, then on average the other runners in the those races must be well under the odds. That being the case, it would seem dangerous to bet against a short priced Gai Waterhouse runner (including first starters).

  4. Gai's has an excellent record of success when using apprentices. There's no reason to be put off if she engages a claiming rider.