Trainer Insights - David Hayes

David Hayes has created a big impression since returning to Australia at the start of the 2005/06 racing season. His first runner Plans was an easy winner at Moonee Valley and when outsider Kindjhal saluted the judge at $30.00 a few races later, the punting public was on notice that there was a new training force in town!

In the first part of our Trainer Insights series, we thought we'd take a punter's view of the David Hayes' stable record.

All statistics are based on races from 13/8/05 (Hayes first day back) to 19/2/06 (the time of writing this article). Profit figures are based on proportional betting using the best of SP and NSW Tab dividends.

David Hayes All Runners - Sorted By Month

Overall we can see that the Hayes stable has so far produced a 14% win strike rate and -27% loss on turnover across all runners. That's quite significant when you consider that betting all runners in all races according to their odds in the same period would have only produced a -10.6% loss. The results so far in 2006 are consistent with those prior. These figures will no doubt come as a surprise to many.

The large majority of Hayes runners race in South Australia and Victoria. While the strike rates are similar, the loss return in South Australia is much greater. This is likely to be caused by the higher bookmaker percentages in SA, but more significantly the profile of Hayes in that State and the propensity of the public to over bet his runners.

All Runners - Sorted By SP Odds

All Runners - Sorted By SP Favourite Rank 

SP Favourites trained by David Hayes have so far returned a 28% strike rate and 23% loss. Betting all favourites in the same period has returned a 33.1% strike rate and -3.6% loss. Again, few people would expect that the performance of Hayes stable favourites has been so far below the general population.

As we move down the favourite ranking list the strike rate and profitably generally diminishes (as naturally expected), with the exception of a few long prices winners that help to boost the statistics. Such winners are rarely predictable before the race though (hence their long market price) and as such offer little value from a punting perspective.

All Runners - Sorted By Age 

The above table shows that the Hayes stable record with 2YO's has been very good, which is well publicised in the media. Away from 2YO's however the statistics look quiet grim.

Let's take a quick look at the performance of Hayes 2YO's in isolation.

2 Year-Olds - Sorted By SP Favourite Rank 

This table presents a clear conclusion. David Hayes 2YO's that start favourite have an outstanding record and historically have been under bet bet by the market. Those that don't start favourite rarely win. We should remember though that these statistics are based on just one batch of 2YO's so far. Next year will present a new batch of yearlings for Hayes to work with so it will be interesting to see if the figures are maintained.

Let's now take a look at the record of Hayes runners excluding 2YO's. 

Non 2 Year-Olds - Sorted By SP Favourite Rank 

Away from 2YO's, Hayes runners have produced just a 12% strike rate and -30% loss. His non 2YO runners that started favourite have only returned a 23% strike rate and -33% loss. All non 2YO favourites in the same period have returned a 32.9% strike rate and only -3.7% loss.

The long priced runners in any set of data can distort the picture, so from this point on we will only examine those runners that were given a genuine chance by the bookmakers market, starting at $10 or less.

Runners Starting At $10 or Less (SP)

Of the 976 Hayes runners that have raced so far, 764 of them started at $10 or less, producing a 15% strike rate and 30% loss, consistent with the overall record. Those that started odds-on have a good historical record, while those longer in price have a much poorer record.

Runners Starting At $10 or Less (SP) - By Jockey (only those with more than 10 rides)

Highlighted jockeys Craig Williams, John Didham and Steven Baster have so far produced a much better than average record riding for the Hayes stable.

It's interesting to note that the record of Craig Williams riding for the Hayes stable is much better over recent months than the figures above indicate.

Runners Starting At $10 or Less (SP) - Ridden By Craig Williams

From November 2005 the record of Hayes and Williams combining on runners <=$10 in the market has been outstanding. Adding further merit to the statistics is the fact that the overall record of David Hayes not improved in recent months, but remained consistent with his overall average.

If the record of Craig Williams riding for David Hayes has been so good since November 2005, then the record of runners not ridden by him must naturally be poor.

Runners Starting At $10 or Less - Not Ridden By Craig Williams  (From Nov 05 to 19th Feb 06)

Since November 2005 Craig Williams has not ridden for David Hayes in South Australia so there is little insight we can gain from those statistics other than to say that they are consistent with the overall Hayes record in that State.

However since November 2005 in Victoria where Williams does ride, Hayes has had 139 runners start at $10 or less that were ridden by another jockey. These runners have only returned a 10% strike rate and massive 52% loss. Remember that we have excluded long-shots from these figures, we are talking about runners that the betting market gave a genuine chance of winning.

Victorian Runners Starting At $10 or Less - Not Ridden By Craig Williams (From Nov 05 to 19th Feb 06)

It's worth noting that Craig Williams was not riding at the meeting when three of these six odds-on horses won.

Away from the dominant odds-on runners, if Hayes has not booked Craig Williams to ride one of his chances in Victoria then it seems a clear sign that the horse is not expected to win. From 132 runners so far there have only been 8 winners for a 6% strike rate and incredible -68.5% loss. The betting market clearly has not adjusted to this fact yet.

Conclusions

Let's wrap up our insight into the Hayes stable record with some conclusions that can be applied to future form analysis and betting decisions

1. The overall strike rate and betting profitability from Hayes stable runners is significantly below the general population. A good portion of the result seems to be driven by the public's propensity to over bet his runners.

2. Hayes 2YO's that start favourite have an outstanding record. It's hard to recommend blindly betting them as the performance may not continue to such an extent, but you should certainly be wary about betting against them.

3. Recent history suggests that Craig Williams is the Hayes jockey of choice in Victoria. Their record together is very good so it's worth paying attention to any runner that Williams is booked to ride.

4. If Williams is not booked to ride a Hayes runner in Melbourne, then history suggests it's unlikely to win and in fact can be confidently opposed. The exception to this is if the horse is a dominant odds-on chance with a clear advantage in ability over its rivals.