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Trainer Insights - A E Bailey
Alan Bailey is
one of Queensland's leading trainers and enjoys a reputation as one
of the most astute horsemen in the country. From his Gold Coast
stables he sends out approximately 500 runners each year and
manages to maintain a very respectable strike rate.
(All figures
are from 1/1/05 to 30/04/07 using best of NSW Tote and SP as the
dividend.)
All Runners
- Sorted By Year
|
Year |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
LRO |
|
2005 |
479 |
94 |
20% |
-6% |
30 |
|
2006 |
532 |
100 |
19% |
-9% |
31 |
|
2007 |
109 |
21 |
19% |
-18% |
18 |
|
Total |
1120 |
215 |
19% |
-9% |
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However, a
closer look at his record reveals some interesting
patterns that could have significant value to the punter.
All Runners
- Sorted By Market (SP) Rank
|
SP |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
1 |
384 |
135 |
35% |
-8% |
|
2 |
197 |
39 |
20% |
-5% |
|
3 |
119 |
19 |
16% |
3% |
|
Other |
420 |
22 |
5% |
-25% |
|
Total |
1120 |
215 |
19% |
-9% |
As is the case
with all trainers and the betting market itself, the best
returns come from those runners well fancied by the market.
All Runners
- Sorted By Area
|
Area |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
Metro |
526 |
82 |
16% |
-17% |
|
Provincial |
588 |
132 |
22% |
-3% |
|
Country |
6 |
1 |
17% |
-30% |
|
Total |
1120 |
215 |
19% |
-9% |
There is a
distinct difference between the performance of his runners on
Metropolitan and Provincial tracks. The 22% strike rate and -3%
return across all odds ranges at Provincial tracks is
outstanding. It's quite surprising that runners from such a high
profile trainer would be so undervalued by the market
(particularly as his home track is Provincial), but it's not
uncommon as we see similar cases with the likes of Lee Freedman
and Gai Waterhouse.
All Runners
- Sorted By Spell Count
|
Spell |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
1st Up |
172 |
39 |
23% |
7% |
|
Other |
860 |
159 |
18% |
-16% |
|
Total |
1032 |
198 |
19% |
-9% |
Here we see an
incredible disparity in performance. Alan Bailey's record with first-up
horses is certainly something to take notice of. A 23% strike
rate and 7% profit across all odds ranges is a clear sign that
the market undervalues his ability and preference to win first-up from a spell. He has
trained 55 first-up runners that have started as favourite for a 45% strike rate and 14% profit.
The return from
non first-up runners however is moderate. This may have been
caused by the market over-reacting to horses that won or ran
well first-up (of which there are many.)
More credence
is added to Bailey's "first-up" proficiency when we look at his
record with first starters (not included in the first up stats
above.)
|
Starts |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
First |
88 |
17 |
19% |
32% |
|
Total |
88 |
17 |
19% |
32% |
The market has
clearly undervalued the first starters Bailey has brought to the
track. When you combine these figures with his first up
statistics
it's clear to
see that most of his success comes in situations where the
market might find it more difficult to assess his runners (first
starts and first up from a spell.) From a stable punting
perspective this is ideal.
Non First Up
Runners -
Sorted By Last Start Finish Position
|
Fin Pos |
Runners |
Wins |
W% |
POT% |
|
1st |
196 |
60 |
31% |
8% |
|
2nd |
137 |
33 |
24% |
-15% |
|
3rd |
99 |
20 |
20% |
-19% |
|
Other |
428 |
46 |
11% |
-34% |
|
Total |
860 |
159 |
18% |
-16% |
While non first-up runners have a moderate overall record, those that are coming
off last start wins seem to perform much better, showing a 31%
strike rate and 8% profit.
Conclusions
As punters the most
significant piece of knowledge we should retain is the outstanding record
Alan Bailey has with first up runners, those having their first race
start and last start winners. This could form the basis of a successful 'spot play' selection
strategy or at the very least make you wary about betting in a race when
Alan Bailey has a well fancied first-up or first start runner.
With the use of the GTX
System Developer you can explore these figures even more and look at the
relationship between the various results (i.e. is there a difference in
the record of first-up runners when analysed by area?) Going through this
process for other trainers can help you to identify where profitable
betting edges might exist and lead to a portfolio of mini selection
strategies to compliment your existing methods.
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